UFC 314 Odds, Prediction: Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva

Jean Silva is a -250 favourite on the MMA odds and Bryce Mitchell is at +200 for the scheduled three-round fight.

Bryce Mitchell UFC 314 Odds

Ilia Topuria is the current UFC featherweight champion with the 30-year-old Mitchell, from Arkansas, ranked No. 13 in the division with a career MMA mark of 17-2 dating to January 2015.

“Thug Nasty” started his career 9-0 over a few different organizations before getting his first shot in the UFC in February 2018 at The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Featherweight tournament. Mitchell beat Jay Cucciniello in the quarterfinals but ended up losing to the eventual season winner Brad Katona in the semifinals. Despite that, Mitchell was signed to the UFC.

Mitchell’s only losses came to the current champion Topuria by second-round submission (arm-triangle choke) in a non-title bout at UFC 282 and then to Josh Emmett via first-round KO (punch) at UFC 296. Mitchell has fought just once since then, beating Kron Gracie by third-round KO (slam and elbows) in December.

The 5-foot-10 Mitchell, a southpaw, has a reach of 70 inches and his fights average 11:31. He lands 59.6 per cent of his significant strike attempts per minute in UFC featherweight competition, the second-highest rate in divisional history behind Jack Jenkins (59.7 per cent). Mitchell absorbs just 1.53 significant strikes per minute, the third-best rate in divisional history. His takedown average is 3.39 per 15 minutes with 43 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 33 per cent.

Overall, Mitchell has nine wins by submission, seven by decision and one by KO/TKO. He is one of three fighters in UFC history to earn a Twister submission victory, which he used to beat Matt Sayles in December 2019. Chan Sung Jung and Da’Mon Blackshear also won with the technique.

For Saturday, Mitchell’s favoured method of victory is by decision at +400, followed by submission at +600, KO/TKO/DQ at +1600 and a draw at +5000. That he wins in Round 1 is +1000. Mitchell last won in the first round against Sayles.

Jean Silva UFC 314 Odds

Silva, a 28-year-old Brazilian, is unranked in the UFC featherweight division with a 15-2 career mark but probably would get into the rankings with a victory Saturday. He has an alter ego that manifests during the course of a fight, which he calls “Lord Assassin” and that’s his nickname.

Silva’s only two losses were to Pedro Henrique in May 2017 in the Aspera Fighting Championship and to Gabriel Schlupp de Lima in the Sao Jose Super Fight series in April 2018. Silva’s UFC debut was a unanimous decision win over Kevin Vallejos in Dana White’s Contender Series in September 2023. Silva fought just 14 days apart last year, beating Charles Jourdain by second-round KO (punch) on June 29, 2024, and then taking out Drew Dober by third-round TKO (doctor stoppage) on July 31. Those two wins in a 14-day stretch is tied for the third-shortest turnaround in modern company history. Khamzat Chimaev holds the record at 10 days. Silva was last in the Octagon in February and beat Melsik Baghdasaryan by first-round TKO (punches and elbows) for his 12th win in a row.

Silva immediately called out Mitchell following that victory saying this if the fight wasn’t made: “They probably didn’t give him a way out. Like, ‘You have to take this fight.’ And since he’s a hillbilly, he’ll try to act tough. Hillbillies like to walk around with toothpicks on their mouth, and I’ll make him swallow it.”

Overall, Silva has 12 wins by KO/TKO, two by submission and one by decision. He has earned 14 of his 15 career victories by stoppage and finished all four of his UFC wins by knockout. That four-fight KO streak is tied for second-longest among active fighters in the company behind Steve Garcia (five).

The 5-foot-7 Silva has a reach of 69 inches and his bouts average just 8:15. He lands 5.26 significant strikes per minute with 53 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.14 with 58 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.73 per 15 minutes with 50 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 80 per cent.

Silva’s favoured method of victory Saturday is by KO/TKO/DQ at +120, followed by decision at +225 and submission at +1200. To win in Round 1, he’s only +270. That either fighter wins by KO/TKO/DQ is -110. The fight going the distance is +160 with No at -200.

UFC 314 Prediction: Mitchell vs. Silva

Neither guy usually goes to the judges, so we like the winner by KO/TKO/DQ at -110.