UFC 313 Odds, Prediction: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev

Justin Gaethje has been idle since suffering a stunning KO loss to Max Holloway in the dying seconds of his first BMF title almost a year ago at UFC 291. Rafael Fiziev ends an 18-month layoff riding a two-fight losing streak. Fiziev suffered a second-round TKO loss to Mateusz Gamrot in his last outing at UFC Vegas 79 and will be aiming to avenge a majority decision loss to Gaethje in their first meeting two years ago at UFC 286.

Fiziev returns to action perched as a -160 favourite on the UFC 313 odds. Gaethje trails as a +135 underdog in his bid to defeat Fiziev a second time while the odds of this clash going the distance sit at +100.

Justin Gaethje UFC 313 Odds

Justin Gaethje was originally scheduled to face Dan Hooker in his first octagon appearance since last April. However, Hooker was forced to withdraw due to injury, opening the door for Fiziev to step in for this long-awaited rematch. The lengthy layoff combined with two straight defeats have made The Highlight’s road back to championship contention steeper.

Max Holloway dominated from the opening bell in his BMF title clash with Gaethje 11 months ago, finishing Gaethje and claiming the symbolic title with a stunning KO with just one second remaining in the fifth round. That marked Gaethje’s first KO or TKO loss in six years and put the brakes on an impressive two-fight win streak that has helped keep him perched as the No. 3 contender in the UFC Lightweight division.

But getting back into the win column will be a tall order against Fiziev, who held his own going tow-to-toe for three rounds during their 2023 matchup, during which he landed body blows at will that wore down the former champion.

Rafael Fiziev UFC 313 Odds

Rafael Fiziev makes an unexpected return to the octagon in Saturday’s co-main event. “Ataman” has been on the shelf with a knee injury that he suffered in the second round of his last outing versus Mateusz Gamrot in September 2023. After taking this fight on short notice in the wake of Dan Hooker’s withdrawal, there has to be some concern about how effectively Fiziev can shake off the rust.

The 32-year-old Kazakhstan native returns to action riding the first losing streak of his career, with his current two-fight slide snapping an impressive six-fight win streak that followed a brutal first-round loss to Magomed Mustafaev in his UFC debut six years ago at UFC Saint Petersburg. As he demonstrated in his first date with Gaethje, Fiziev possesses impressive punching power, with two of his six recent wins coming by KOs on punches.

“Ataman” has also seen five of his 12 career wins come by KOs by kick or knee.

UFC 313 Prediction: Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev

With Gathje coming off a long layoff and Fiziev making his first appearance in 18 months on short notice, this fight could get off to a slow start. However, if their first fight was any indication, things should quickly heat up with these two brawlers going toe-to-toe for three rounds.

Neither fighter is a big threat to change levels. So expect a battle of attrition, with both fighters looking to score points in a close battle that is likely to go a full three rounds, with Gaethje’s long odds offering the most value.

Prediction: Gaethje by decision/technical decision (+350)