UFC 313 Odds, Prediction: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev

It’s nearly a pick’em on the MMA odds with Alex Pereira at -115 and Magomed Ankalaev at -105 for the scheduled five-round fight.

Alex Pereira UFC 313 Odds

Pereira is 37 years old but has only 14 professional bouts under his belt with a 12-2 mark. He didn’t get started until 2015 and lost that first fight and then only had a few more bouts until 2020 when he started in full-time. The Brazilian is a former Glory middleweight and light heavyweight champion, and he was the first and only fighter to hold Glory titles in two weight classes simultaneously. Pereira is known as a knockout puncher and kickboxer but also has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

“Poatan” won the UFC middleweight title in November 2022 by knocking off Israel Adesanya but then lost the immediate rematch in April 2023 by second-round KO and opted to move up to light heavyweight. Pereira is 5-0 in that division. He beat Jiri Prochazka at UFC 295 to win the title and has had successful title defences against Prochazka, Jamahal Hill and last October against Khalil Rountree by fourth-round TKO (punches).

Pereira has thus joined Randy Couture, B.J. Penn, Conor McGregor, Canadian Georges St-Pierre, Daniel Cormier, Henry Cejudo, Amanda Nunes and Jon Jones as the only fighters to win UFC titles in two weight classes, but Pereira’s seven total UFC fights to become a two-division champion were the fewest in company history. His four victories in UFC light heavyweight championship fights are tied for third-most in divisional history behind Jones (14) and Chuck Liddell (five).

The 6-foot-4 Pereira has a reach of 70 inches and his bouts average 10:38. He lands 5.46 significant strikes per minute with 63 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.44 with 55 per cent defence. In just UFC light heavyweight competition, he lands 67.2 per cent of his significant strike attempts, the highest rate in divisional history. Pereira’s takedown average is 0.14 per 15 minutes with 100 percent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 70 per cent.

A total of 10 of Pereira’s wins are by KO/TKO and two by decision. His favoured method Saturday is by KO/TKO/DQ at +150, followed by decision at +550 and submission at +1600 – both these guys likely will want to keep this fight standing up. On the round betting, Pereira winning in Round 1 at +450 is cheaper than any other round and even Pereira on points at +550.

“This is a tough fight for Alex. Alex comes out of this the way he’s come out of every other fight, he might be the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world,” UFC boss Dana White said this week. Pereira is currently ranked as he No. 3 pound-for-pound fighter.

Magomed Ankalaev UFC 313 Odds

For obvious reasons, the UFC or NFL or MLB or NBA, etc., have outlawed their athletes gambling on their own sports. Alex Pereira publicly challenged the 32-year-old Ankalaev to a $200,000 (US) wager on this bout with all proceeds going to charity as part of their ongoing trash talk, but that can’t happen.

Here’s what Ankalaev said in response on X: “As a Muslim you know betting is forbidden in Islam, and also as a Muslim every year I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to charity, this is one of the five pillars of Islam. Many kids around the world are in need and we can do things after the fight but we don’t have to publicize it. Your manager and my manager have a good relationship and we can let them handle that, see you soon.”

Ankalaev (19-1, 1 draw, 1 NC) is ranked as the No. 1 contender in the light heavyweight division. The native of Dagestan lost his first career UFC fight in March 2018 to Paul Craig but enters on a 13-fight winning streak that includes a split draw vs. Jan Blachowicz and a no-contest (illegal knee) vs. Johnny Walker.

That unbeaten streak is tied for fifth-longest in company history behind Jon Jones (20), Anderson Silva (16), Kamaru Usman (15) and Islam Makhachev (15). It’s also the second-longest in UFC light heavyweight history behind Jones’ 18.

The 6-foot-3 Ankalaev has a reach 75 inches and his bouts average 11:37. He lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute with 52 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.37 with 58 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.92 per 15 minutes with 31 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 86 per cent. Ankalaev has 10 wins by KO/TKO and nine by decision.

For this one, his favoured method is by decision at +275, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +300 and submission +800. That he wins in Round 1 is +850. Ankalaev’s six knockout victories in UFC light heavyweight competition are tied for fourth-most in divisional history.

To go the full five rounds, the fight is +150 with no at -210.