UFC 312 Odds, Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland

There are two title fights at UFC 312, which is held in Sydney on Sunday local time Down Under but the main card will start at 10 p.m. ET time Saturday, and is headlined by middleweight champ Dricus Du Plessis in a rematch against former champion Sean Strickland. Du Plessis is -210 on the MMA odds and Strickland +170 for the scheduled five-rounder.

UFC 312 Odds: Dricus Du Plessis

This card marks the UFC’s seventh visit to Sydney and first since UFC 293 in September 2023 – which was headlined by a middleweight title fight between then-champion Israel Adesanya against Sean Strickland. The 31-year-old Du Plessis, from South Africa, is 22-2 in his MMA career and is making his second middleweight title defence. He is ranked No. 7 on the UFC pound-for-pound list and is a former Extreme Fighting Championship welterweight champion.

“Stillknocks” earned the UFC middleweight belt in January 2024 at UFC 297 from Scotiabank Arena with a split-decision victory over Strickland that was fairly controversial. Strickland had the upper hand in the early rounds, but in the third and fourth rounds Du Plessis turned things big time, cutting Strickland near his left eye and hurting him with a big right hand. It made Du Plessis the UFC’s first-ever champion from South Africa. Upon the scorecards being read, Du Plessis called for the South African flag in a cool moment. “This is history,” he said in the post-fight interview.

Du Plessis became one of five fighters in UFC history to force a title change by split decision along with Alexandre Pantoja, Robbie Lawler, Henry Cejudo and Carla Esparza. Du Plessis made his first defence against Adesanya last August at UFC 304 and won by fourth-round submission (face crank) also in Australia but in Perth. It was very close through three rounds, but a Du Plessis left hook stunned the former champion and led to the finish.

The 6-foot-1 Du Plessis has a reach of 76 inches and his fights average 12:21. He lands 6.18 significant strikes per minute with 49 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.85 with 54 per cent defence. His takedown average is 3.04 per 15 minutes with 50 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 50 per cent.

Du Plessis is 8-0 since joining the UFC, and that winning streak at middleweight is the longest active in the division and fourth-longest in divisional history with Anderson Silva holding the mark of 13. Du Plessis has a loss each by KO/TKO and submission career and 11 wins by submission, nine by KO/TKO and two by decision. He has finished eight total wins in Round 1.

For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at +150, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +400 and submission at +450. To win in Round 1 for a ninth time career, he’s +750. To do it in 60 seconds or less is +3500. A draw is +5000.

UFC 312 Odds: Sean Strickland

Strickland, 33, is from the Los Angeles area and ranked as the No. 1 middleweight contender with a 29-6 record. He’s a former King of the Cage middleweight champion and considered one of the best defensive strikers in the sport.

“Tarzan” got his first UFC title shot at UFC 293 against Israel Adesanya as a huge underdog (+500 at some books) but won by unanimous decision. That brought on the first meeting with Dricus Du Plessis and that split-decision loss, which naturally Strickland thought was absolutely the wrong result. To be fair, UFC boss Dana White does usually score fights unofficially and had Strickland winning — and about half of the media outlets agreed. Strickland has claimed that Du Plessis headbutted him, which resulted in a cut that obscured his vision.

“I feel like I got robbed,” Strickland said. “I feel like that headbutt changed things. It changed the optics, the dynamics. It’s not personal in the sense that I hate Dricus. It’s just personal in the sense that we need to fight in a five-round war and see what happens.”

Strickland is one of 17 fighters in history to earn victories in three UFC weight classes as he has wins at light heavyweight, middleweight and welterweight. The 6-foot-1 Strickland has a reach of 76 inches and his fights average 15:39. His average fight time of 17:37 in UFC middleweight competition is longest in divisional history.

He lands 6.01 significant strikes per minute with 42 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.48 with 61 per cent defence. In UFC fights only, Strickland lands 6.32 significant strikes per minute in middleweight competition, the highest rate in divisional history. His takedown average is 0.78 per 15 minutes with 64 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 77 per cent.

Strickland has four losses by decision and two by KO/TKO, with 14 wins by decision, 11 by KO/TKO and four by submission. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at +250, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +700 and submission +2200. To win in Round 1, he is +2500 and in 60 seconds or less +6600. That the bout goes the full five is -175 with no at +130.