Jon Jones is a -700 favourite on the MMA odds with Stipe Miocic +475 for the scheduled five-rounder.

Jon Jones UFC 309 Odds

There are many who believe the 37-year-old American Jones is the best fighter in MMA history as he never technically has been beaten and ruled the light heavyweight division for about a decade. Jones is 27-1, but that loss was way back in December 2009 via disqualification for illegal elbows against Matt Hamill – a fighter Jones almost surely would have easily beaten. The issue with Jones for years has been his legal problems outside the Octagon and that’s partly why he has only fought twice this decade and why he has slipped to the No. 3 fighter on the UFC’s pound-for-pound rankings.

The current interim heavyweight champion is Tom Aspinall, but Jones has said he has no interest in fighting him should Jones win Saturday, but instead he prefers to take on light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira. And it should be noted that Pereira has talked about a move to heavyweight to challenge for an unprecedented championship in a third weight class.

“I feel like Tom Aspinall is — I don’t want to say nobody — but he hasn’t proven anything, he hasn’t done anything,” Jones said recently. “I’m not here to gamble on someone else making a name off of me.”

We last saw Jones in March 2023 when he beat Ciryl Gane by first-round submission (guillotine choke) in Jones’ heavyweight debut – his three previous bouts had gone the full five rounds, leading some to speculate his dominance was slipping with age. “Bones” has 10 wins by KO/TKO, 10 by decision and seven by submission. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +130, followed by submission at +200 and decision at +400. A draw is +5000.

Jones’ 19-fight unbeaten streak in UFC competition is the longest in company history. He has beaten seven fighters who once held an undisputed UFC belt, the most of any active fighter in the organization. Jones has just the one fight at heavyweight so all his relevant statistics are at light heavyweight. His 10 decision victories there are most in divisional history, while his 10 stoppage victories are third-most and five submission wins also third-most.

One key to Jones’ success? A monster reach of 84.5 inches that was the longest in the light heavyweight division and is the longest among active UFC fighters. Jones’ fights average 14:53. He lands 4.29 significant strikes per minute with 57 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.22 with 64 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.93 per 15 minutes with 45 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 95 per cent.

Stipe Miocic UFC 309 Odds

While Jones is the most decorated light heavyweight in UFC history, the 42-year-old Miocic (20-4), who is from Ohio, is considered the most decorated heavyweight of all-time as a former two-time division champion with a record four heavyweight title defences. Miocic looks to become the second fighter in UFC history to have three title reigns in a single weight class along with Randy Couture.

But Miocic hasn’t fought since losing to Francis Ngannou in March 2021 and not won a bout since successfully defending his title against Daniel Cormier in August 2020. Miocic has only faced those two in his past five fights overall. The time away is why Miocic is only ranked eighth in the division currently even though his six UFC heavyweight title fight victories are the most in history. He was originally to fight Jones in the UFC’s annual visit to New York in 2023, but Jones suffered a torn pectoral that required surgery, forcing him out of the fight.

“I will go as far as I have to in this fight, I don’t care what I have to do, Miocic said. “He’s [Jones] never seen anything like me. I’m going to hurt him a lot, I promise you that. I am going to beat his a** and walk out with the belt around my waist.”

Miocic’s fights average 11:11 and his reach is 80 inches. He lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute with 53 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.82 with 54 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.86 per 15 minutes with 34 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 68 per cent.

Three of four Miocic’s losses are via KO/TKO and one by decision. He has 15 wins by KO/TKO and five by decision. His nine knockout victories in heavyweight competition are tied for fifth-most in divisional history. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +600, followed by decision at +900 and submission +3000.

That the fight goes the full five rounds is +350 with no at -500. That it ends for either fighter by KO/TKO/DQ is -130, followed by submission at +195 and decision +350.

UFC 309 Prediction: Jones vs. Miocic

Not much value simply backing Jones so we prefer ends by KO/TKO/DQ at -130 for either fighter.