UFC 304 Odds, Prediction: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad

The UFC is in Manchester this Saturday with a stellar main event from the welterweight division. It’s the third title defence for Leon Edwards, who went a full five rounds in his last two fights. Belal Muhammad is unbeaten in his last 10 fights and he rides into the U.K. on a five-fight win streak.

This is the second career fight between Edwards and Muhammad. They headlined a UFC Fight Night card in March 2021, but the fight was called a ‘no contest’ after Muhammad suffered an accidental eye poke in the second round and could not continue.

Edwards opened as a sizeable -275 favourite to win the rematch on the MMA odds, while Muhammad is a +210 underdog.

Leon Edwards UFC 304 Odds

Edwards, No. 4 in the men’s UFC pound-for-pound rankings, is 22-3 with one no contest in his professional MMA career dating to 2011. The 32-year-old was previously the welterweight champion in the BAMMA promotion before his UFC debut in 2014. He’s 14-2 in the Octagon (one no contest) and he’s unbeaten in his last 13 fights.

Edwards has been dominant over the last decade and hasn’t lost a fight since falling by unanimous decision against Kamaru Usman in 2015. He exacted his revenge on Usman by unseating him as welterweight champion at UFC 278 in the summer of 2022 and winning the trilogy fight at UFC 286 in March 2023.

“Rocky” heavily controlled his second title defence against Colby Covington at UFC 296 in December, winning by unanimous decision. Edwards hasn’t been afraid to go the distance, with 12 of his 22 career victories coming by decision. He also has seven knockouts and three submission wins.

Edwards is fighting an opponent who is also comfortable winning on points, so he should prioritize a finish in this fight. He’s a better striker and staying on his feet will be essential as Muhammad has the edge on the canvas. Edwards is the better overall fighter and he’s only improved since his first fight against Muhammad, so it would be a significant upset if he doesn’t retain the welterweight belt.

Belal Muhammad UFC 304 Odds

Muhammad is 23-3 (one no contest) since his professional MMA debut in 2012. Fighting out of Chicago, the 36-year-old has also competed for Bellator and he won the inaugural Titan FC welterweight championship in 2016. Muhammad made the move to the UFC in 2016 and has since gone 14-3 in the Octagon.

“Remember the Name” is undefeated in the last five years, with wins over notable names like Stephen Thompson, Vicente Luque and Sean Brady. He extended his win streak to five (and his unbeaten streak to 10) with a unanimous decision victory against Gilbert Burns at UFC 288 in May 2023.

Muhammad isn’t known as a finisher, with 19 of his 27 career fights going to decision. And while he does have five wins by knockout and one by submission, a majority 17 of 23 wins are by decision. The only two finishes on his 10-fight unbeaten streak (a knockout and a submission) both earned Performance of the Night bonuses.

The keys to this fight for Muhammad will be takedowns, ignoring the crowd and never giving up. Edwards was born in Jamaica, but moved to Birmingham as a child so Muhammad will be going against a crowd favourite. If Muhammad can take Edwards down and keep him down, he’ll win. If this becomes a standup fight, Muhammad will be in tough.

UFC 304 Prediction: Edwards vs. Muhammad

Edwards largely controlled the first fight against Muhammad and since then he’s evolved more as a fighter than his opponent, so I’m sticking with the champ in this one. Edwards wins by decision (+100).