UFC 303 Odds, Prediction: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka

These two fighters just faced each other in November for the vacant light heavyweight title, with Pereira winning by second-round TKO. This is the second title defence for Pereira after he earned a first-round KO over Jamahal Hill at UFC 300 in April. Prochazka also fought at UFC 300, earning Performance of the Night with a second-round TKO against Aleksandar Rakic.

Pereira is a -150 favourite on the MMA odds to win the rematch, while Prochazka is a +125 underdog.

Alex Pereira UFC 303 Odds

The 36-year-old Pereira has made the most of his move to the UFC in 2021, going 7-1 in the Octagon while winning both the middleweight and light heavyweight championships. Pereira, who is 10-2 overall in his MMA career, started as a kickboxer and became the only Glory fighter to hold titles in two weight classes simultaneously.

Pereira won his first four fights in the UFC, culminating with a fifth-round TKO victory over Israel Adesanya to win the middleweight championship in April 2023. He ended up losing the belt in the rematch and moved to the light heavyweight division where he went 3-0 and became just the ninth fighter in UFC history to become champion in two different divisions.

“Poatan” is No. 4 in the UFC men’s pound-for-pound rankings. He’s an elite and technical kickboxer and at 6-foot-4 he is comfortable fighting at distance or in close. Pereira can be deceptive with his low leg kicks, but his best attribute is his lethal left hook, which holds fight-ending power few can match.

Look for Pereira to carefully pick his strikes in this fight as his 62.8 per cent significant strike accuracy is the fourth-highest in UFC history. He tends to take risks and put himself in danger when he thinks he has the upper-hand, so I would be surprised if this fight doesn’t end in a knockout regardless of who wins.

Jiri Prochazka UFC 303 Odds

Prochazka is 30-4 with one draw since his professional MMA debut in 2012. The 31-year-old was the inaugural Rizin Fighting Federation light heavyweight champion and the inaugural Gladiator Fighting Championship light heavyweight champion. He made his move to the UFC in 2020, going 4-1 while winning three Performance of the Night bonuses and one Fight of the Night.

Prochazka is looking to get back on top after being forced to vacate the light heavyweight belt because of an injury. He won the belt with a fifth-round submission victory against Glover Teixeira at UFC 275, but he never had a chance to defend the title after suffering a shoulder injury that kept him out of action for 16 months until the first fight against Pereira.

“BJP” is an interesting contrast to Pereira. While the champion is very technically sound, Prochazka is more free-flowing and inventive, which makes him an incredibly unpredictable, entertaining fighter. His aggressiveness often puts him in danger, but it also makes his attacks difficult to anticipate.

Prochazka averages 5.75 significant strikes landed per minute, fourth all-time among light heavyweights, so you can bank on him being the aggressor in this fight. He’s not afraid to switch stances and he holds solid power in his hands and his kicks.

UFC 303 Prediction: Pereira vs. Prochazka

Oddsmakers clearly expect a knockout on Saturday as the shortest odds are Pereira to win by KO/TKO at +125 and Prochazka to win by KO/TKO at +150. There’s pros and cons of each fighter’s style, but Pereira’s combination of technical ability and power gives him the edge in my mind.

Prediction: Pereira wins by KO/TKO (+125)