UFC 299 Odds, Prediction: Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera

Sean O’Malley and Marlon Vera will meet at Miami’s Kaseya Center in a rematch almost four years in the making. The pair first fought at UFC 252 in August 2020, with Vera winning by first-round TKO.

O’Malley is a -275 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Vera is a +220 underdog.

Sean O’Malley UFC 299 Odds

This will be the first title defence for O’Malley, who has a 17-1 record (with one no contest) since his professional MMA debut in 2015. The 29-yer-old Montana native is currently No. 8 in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings and he’s won five straight fights since his only career loss in 2020. He also had a no contest fight in 2022 after an accidental eye poke rendered Pedro Munhoz unable to continue.

“Suga” wasn’t happy with the way he lost to Vera four years ago. Vera caught him early with a low kick that deadened his left leg and was eventually diagnosed with drop foot after the fight. But, O’Malley bounced back and eventually earned his title shot after a split decision win over Petr Yan at UFC 280 in October 2022. He completed his rise to the top of the bantamweight division with a second-round knockout win against Aljamain Sterling last summer in Boston.

O’Malley maintains distance at an elite level and he uses that protection to land smart, technical, strikes. He’s got great vision, speed and timing and he’s always a danger to land a variety of kicks at range. One concern, is that because he maintains distance, his back is often against the cage, although he often avoids getting pinned back because of his solid lateral movement. He’s also a strong defensive grappler the odd time he gets caught.

O’Malley will likely play this fight out cautiously. He’s faster than Vera and he’ll have the advantage punching and kicking from range, but he has to be wary of Vera’s strong counter-striking ability. If O’Malley can maintain distance and protect himself from Vera’s low leg kicks, he should have the clear edge in this fight.

Marlon Vera UFC 299 Odds

The 31-year-old Vera, who is from Ecuador and fights out of California, has been a workhorse since turning professional in 2010. He has strung together a 23-8-1 record over a long career, but this is his first title shot. He gained entry into the UFC after appearing in the inaugural season of ‘The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America’ and he’s climbed to No. 5 in the bantamweight division.

“Chito” comes into UFC 299 with wins in five of his last six fights. He dropped his opening fight of 2023 with a split decision loss against Cory Sandhagen, but he bounced back last time out with a unanimous decision win over Munhoz last August on the same card that saw O’Malley win the bantamweight title.

Vera is a relentless opponent with finishes in 18 of his 23 career victories. He’s fairly cautious despite his reputation as a finisher and his methodical style can lead to slow starts at times. The best tool he has is his variety of kicks. Vera excels at low kicks, front kicks to the body, roundhouse kicks to the body, hook kicks and spinning back kicks. He’s also dangerous with his elbows and knees, but his desire to wait for the perfect shot often leads to him fighting from behind in later rounds.

You’ve got to think Vera will follow a similar game plan as his first fight against O’Malley. His immediate goal will be to focus on closing the gap and attacking with low leg kicks. Vera is also a strong wrestler, so he could try to mix things up and surprise O’Malley by taking the fight to the ground. But, the main key to this fight for Vera is still to quickly get O’Malley within range.