UFC 274: Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews
May 4, 2022

The main event of UFC 274 from Phoenix on Saturday is a lightweight title bout, but also on the main card is another terrific fight from that division between contenders Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson. Chandler is -405 to win on the MMA odds with Ferguson at +300 and an over-under of just 1.5 rounds.

Michael Chandler UFC 274 Odds

Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje are fighting for the lightweight title in the main event on Saturday and Chandler is ranked fifth in the division. The 36-year-old former collegiate wrestler at the University of Missouri is 22-7 in a professional MMA career that began in 2009. He was a three-time Bellator lightweight champion and winner of the Bellator Season 4 lightweight tournament. His six wins in Bellator championship fights are second-most in company history.

“Iron” has made only three UFC appearances. He debuted with a first-round TKO win over Dan Hooker but lost last May to Oliveira for the vacant lightweight title. While Chandler was able to drop Oliveira in the first round, he would lose via TKO early in the second. Chandler took on Gaethje in November and lost that back-and-forth battle via unanimous decision in what the UFC and just about every other outlet voted as Fight of the Year.

The 5-foot-8 Chandler has 10 wins by KO/TKO, seven by submission and five by decision. He has lost four times by KO/TKO and three by decision. His favoured method of victory Saturday is by KO/TKO/DQ at -140, then by decision at +200 and by submission at +900. Chandler’s 13 stoppage victories in Bellator competition are tied for most in company history.

Chandler’s fights average 7:31. He lands 5.17 significant strikes per minutes with 46 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.98 with 44 per cent defence. Chandler’s takedown average is 1.73 per 15 minutes with 33 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence 71 per cent.

Tony Ferguson UFC 274 Odds

Ferguson, 38, is ranked No. 7 in the division and he’s 25-6 in a career that dates to 2008. He has been with the UFC since he won “The Ultimate Fighter 13” in 2011.

Following a loss to Michael Johnson in May 2012, “El Cucuy” went on a 12-fight winning streak, including notable victories over the likes of Edson Barboza, Rafael dos Anjos, Kevin Lee (for the interim lightweight title), Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone.

However, Ferguson enters on a three-fight losing streak. He was to face Khabib Nurmagomedov for lightweight title UFC 249, but Nurmagomedov was unable to leave Russia due COVID issues. Ferguson instead fought late replacement Gaethje, who won by fifth-round TKO. Ferguson has since lost to Oliveira and Beneil Dariush by unanimous decision.

The 5-foot-11 Ferguson has 12 wins by KO/TKO, eight by submission and five by decision, while four of his six losses are via the judges. His 10 stoppage victories in UFC lightweight competition are tied for third most in divisional history. Ferguson’s favoured method of victory Saturday is by decision at +505, followed by submission at +635 and KO/TKO/DQ at +900.

Ferguson’s fights average 11:18. He lands 5.15 significant strikes per minute with 45 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.78 with 59 per cent defence. Ferguson lands 0.42 takedowns per 15 minutes with 42 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 67 per cent. He will have a five-inch reach advantage.