UFC 269: Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Pena Odds, Prediction

Currently holding both the UFC women’s bantamweight and featherweight belts, Amanda Nunes has already cemented herself as one of the greatest champions in UFC history as she looks for her 13th straight win in the Octagon on Saturday in Las Vegas.  Nunes will face a hungry competitor in No. 3 bantamweight contender Julianna Pena, who has been lobbying for this fight for almost a year.  Can Nunes add another successful chapter to her storied career, or does Pena have what it takes to shock the MMA world?

Nunes is a very heavy -875 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Pena enters as a +535 underdog.

Amanda Nunes UFC 269 Odds

Nunes (21-4 MMA record) is one of the most dominant fighters in UFC history.  She’s such a threat, the UFC has struggled to find opponents who can at least somewhat keep up with her.  It’s been almost exactly two years since she’s defended her bantamweight belt, as she focused on successfully defending her featherweight belt for the second and third time.  Nunes beat Felicia Spencer by unanimous decision in June 2020.  She also earned a first-round submission win over Megan Anderson in March.

This will be Nunes’ fifth bantamweight title defence.  She hasn’t fought in the division since a unanimous decision win against Germaine de Randamie at UFC 245 in December 2019.  Prior to that fight, Nunes had notable victories over Holly Holm (first-round TKO, bantamweight), Cris Cyborg (first-round KO, featherweight) and Valentina Shevchenko twice (split decision and unanimous decision, both at bantamweight).

“The Lioness” has registered better numbers than Pena in almost every major statistical category.  Nunes averages 4.5 significant strikes per minute with 51 per cent accuracy.  That compares to 2.8 strikes at 47 per cent accuracy for Pena.  Her takedown defence is 84 per cent, while Pena is at 23 per cent.

Nunes has the potential to win this fight a variety of ways, but keeping this fight standing up is probably the best strategy.  Pena has never faced an opponent as powerful and as accurate as Nunes.  If Nunes can strike hard and strike early, this fight likely won’t make it out of the first-round.

Julianna Pena UFC 269 Odds

It’s been a bit of a back-and-forth few years for Pena (10-4 MMA record) as she’s alternated wins and losses over her last four fights.  She’s a former Ultimate Fighter winner and she earned this title shot after a third-round submission win against Sara McMann at UFC 257 in January.

Prior to the McMann fight, Pena was submitted in the third-round by de Randamie, won by unanimous decision against Nicco Montano and lost by second-round submission against Shevchenko.

One stat that could be very beneficial in this fight for Pena is her low average number of significant strikes absorbed per minute.  She absorbs just 1.7 significant strikes per minute, which ranks 10th among all active UFC fighters and second all-time in the UFC women’s bantamweight division.

Don’t completely overlook Pena in this fight.  She’s gritty, tough both physically and mentally and she has a lot more on the line in this fight than Nunes.  Pena’s best strategy is to keep a comfortable distance, feel Nunes out and work on picking up points.  She’s not going to KO Nunes and she likely won’t be able to submit her.  If Pena can be patient and go the distance, she has a legitimate shot at an upset win.

UFC 269 Prediction: Nunes vs. Pena

On paper, this is a lopsided fight.  But, there’s a reason winners aren’t declared on paper, upsets happen.  Holm over Ronda Rousey, Nate Diaz over Conor McGregor, Chris Weidman over Anderson Silva, etc.  Anything is possible.  That being said, the gap just looks too big between Nunes and Pena.  Nunes is too tough, too skilled and too experienced to lose.  This fight ends in a first-round KO win for Nunes.