UFC 268: Shane Burgos vs. Billy Quarantillo Prediction

The lone featherweight matchup on the UFC 268 main card from New York City on Saturday night is a matchup between Americans Shane Burgos and Billy Quarantillo.

Burgos is a -175 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Quarantillo is a +140 underdog.

Shane Burgos UFC 268 Odds

Alexander Volkanovski is the UFC featherweight champion and the 30-year-old Burgos, a New York native, is ranked 14th with a career record of 13-3.

Burgos began his career 10-0, including 3-0 in the UFC, but didn’t face the best competition. The first loss for “Hurricane” was by third-round TKO (punches) to Calvin Kattar in January 2018. Burgos then won three straight, including an impressive split decision over Cub Swanson, but enters on the first losing skid of his career.

He lost by unanimous decision in June 2020 to Josh Emmett and by third-round TKO in May against Edson Barboza. That was a unique knockout because Barboza landed a hard right hand to Burgos’ face and Burgos appeared fine … but about 10 seconds later he started wobbling and hit the canvas with Barboza finishing things off.

“I remember the shot landing and I remember being like, ‘Okay, why are my legs shutting down?’ I’m trying to stand up straight and my legs are just like, ‘Nah, we’re going to go down,’” Burgos said.

The 5-foot-11 Burgos averages 12:17 of fight time and lands an average of 7.29 significant strikes per minute — the highest rate in divisional history – with a 49 per cent accuracy while absorbing 6.11 per minute with 58 per cent defence. Burgos averages 0.27 takedowns per 15 minutes with 100 per cent accuracy and has a takedown defence of 89 per cent, the second-best rate in divisional history behind Jose Aldo.

Burgos has five wins apiece by KO/TKO and submission and three by decision. His favoured method of victory here is by points at -160, followed by KO, TKO or DQ at +200 and submission at +800.

Billy Quarantillo UFC 268 Odds

The 32-year-old Quarantillo, unranked in the division, was born in the New York area but now fights out of Tampa, Fla. He is 16-3 in his MMA career and only has been in the UFC since July 2019. Quarantillo won his first five bouts before running into Gavin Tucker last December and losing by unanimous decision.

He was back in the Octagon on July and beat Gabriel Benitez by third-round TKO (punches). Quarantillo landed nearly three times as many strikes as Benitez – 179 total – in leaving his opponent a bloody mess.

The 5-foot-10 Quarantillo’s fights average 12:05 and he lands 7.08 significant strikes per minute with 64 per cent accuracy while absorbing 4.33 with 43 per cent defence. Quarantillo’s takedown defence is 1.66 per 15 minutes with 34 per cent accuracy and his defence is 57 per cent.

Seven of Quarantillo’s wins are by KO/TKO, five by submission and four by decision. His favoured method of victory is by points at +350, followed by KO, TKO or DQ at +400 and by submission at +1200.

“He can take a shot,” Quarantillo said of Burgos. “We both have good conditioning, as he’s not a guy I’ll drag into deep waters, as with Shane you have to take him out. I’ll chip away at him, work my striking, work everything and wherever the easiest path to getting the victory, whether it’s snatching a neck and getting a choke or landing that perfect shot, I will rise to the occasion and get it done.”

The over-under for the fight is 2.5 rounds, with the over a -145 favourite. That it goes the distance is -142 with no at +100.

UFC 268 Prediction: Burgos vs. Quarantillo

Burgos by decision.