UFC 268: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington Prediction
UFC 268’s stacked main card is highlighted by a championship fight between welterweight top dog Kamaru Usman and No. 1 contender Colby Covington. Set to go from New York’s Madison Square Garden Saturday night, this will be a rematch of their UFC 245 bout, which earned Fight of the Night honours in December 2019.
Usman is a -350 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Covington comes in as a +240 underdog.
Kamaru Usman UFC 268 Odds
This will be Usman’s fifth title defence. The 34-year-old claimed the welterweight belt from Tyron Woodley with a unanimous decision win at UFC 235 in March 2019. Usman’s first title defence came nine months later against Covington, ending in a fifth-round TKO win by punches. The fight was a brutal slugfest and was the latest finish in UFC welterweight history.
The “Nigerian Nightmare” has looked dominant since the first Covington fight. Usman followed up the win with three more title defences. He beat Jorge Masvidal by unanimous decision on Fight Island last July before downing Gilbert Burns and Masvidal again in 2021, each by KO/TKO.
Usman (19-1 MMA record) has already established himself among the greats of the UFC welterweight division. His 14-fight win streak is the second longest in UFC history, just two wins behind Anderson Silva’s record of 16 straight.
A physically dominating fighter, Usman imposes his will on opponents. His overall game continues to improve and his sharp attack is brutal and calculating. Usman is a skilled wrestler and he possesses elite control and patience in clinches.
Standing up, Usman relies on a fundamental attack. His strategy won’t throw anything surprising at an opponent, but it’s very effective. Usman will often use front kicks to the body, while his ability to switch stances allows him to attack at multiple angles. He’s a powerful puncher with solid knockout ability and his combinations are tight with sharp, varied jabs. Usman averages 4.69 significant strikes landed per minute with 54 per cent accuracy, compared to 3.9 strikes with 39 per cent accuracy for Covington.
Colby Covington UFC 268 Odds
The first fight against Usman was just Covington’s second career loss and the one blemish on his record over his last nine fights. Covington (16-2 MMA record) has only fought once since the Usman bout. He faced Woodley in September 2020, dominating the fight from start to finish and earning a fifth-round TKO win.
Prior to the Usman loss, Covington had rattled off seven consecutive wins, taking down notable names like Robbie Lawler Rafael dos Anjos and Demian Maia. Covington’s two losses have come by knockout and submission, while he has four wins by KO/TKO, four by submission and eight by decision.
Covington and Usman were very similar fighters in their first meeting, so it will be interesting to see how they have each evolved over the last two years. “Chaos” is a pressure-heavy fighter. His cardio is among the best in the division and uses that to break opponents down as the fight goes on. He relies on combination-based striking and he tends to work multiple shots in when he has his opponent pinned against the cage.
Covington’s best strategy, however, might be to take this fight to the ground. He’s the superior grappler, so testing Usman on the mat could throw the champion off. Covington averages 5.69 takedowns per 15 minutes with 51 per cent takedown accuracy, compared to 3.22 takedowns with 47 per cent accuracy for Usman.
UFC 268 Prediction: Usman vs. Covington
Most people were surprised when the first fight between these two didn’t end up on the ground. They’ve both developed as strikers since joining the UFC, but wrestling is still a reliable strength for each fighter. As skilled and dangerous as Covington is, however, Usman is just too good all-around. Usman defends his belt with a unanimous decision victory.