UFC 268: Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Chandler Prediction

Justin Gaethje, the No. 2 ranked lightweight contender, hasn’t fought since a second-round submission loss against former lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov in Nurmagomedov’s final fight before his retirement.  No. 5 lightweight contender Michael Chandler has been off since a second-round TKO loss against current lightweight champion Charles Oliveira in May.

Gaethje is a -210 favourite to win on the UFC odds, while Chandler is a +155 underdog.

Justin Gaethje UFC 268 Odds

Gaethje (22-3 MMA record) has been off for over a year since his lightweight title shot against Nurmagomedov.  He lost the fight by a triangle choke in the second round.  Despite tapping, the referee did not stop the fight and the choke caused him to lose consciousness.  It was the first submission loss of Gaethje’s career.

Prior to the Nurmagomedov loss, Gaethje had won four straight fights with dominant first round KO/TKOs over James Vick, Edson Barboza and Donald Cerrone.  Gaethje’s fifth-round TKO win against Dan Hooker earned him the interim lightweight championship as well as Fight of the Night and Performance of the Night bonuses.

“The Highlight” is just that: a human highlight reel.  Gaethje is as entertaining a fighter as they come.  He loves high-danger, high-action exchanges and he’s honed those tendencies to be as lethal as possible at all times.  Gaethje relies heavily on his low leg kick and isn’t afraid to go for a big attack early.  His punching combinations are simple, but heavy and powerful.  He can effectively strike moving forward and backward and he’s comfortable countering off aggressive attacks.

Gaethje is a high volume striker who averages 7.74 significant strikes landed per minute with 59 per cent accuracy.  The danger for Gaethje is that his style opens him up to counter attacks.  He absorbs 8.37 significant strikes per minute with 54 per cent defence.  Look for Gaethje to close the gap early and pressure Chandler from the start.

Michael Chandler UFC 268 Odds

Chandler (22-6 MMA record) has stayed busy in 2021.  He began the year in style, earning Performance of the Night with a first-round TKO win against Hooker at UFC 257 in January.  That win earned Chandler a shot a the vacant lightweight title at UFC 262, where he would face Oliveira in May.  Chandler knocked Oliveira down in the first round, but he would lose the fight by second round TKO.

Those two fight are actually the extent of Chandler’s experience in the UFC.  Chandler is a three-time Bellator lightweight champion and won the Bellator Season Four Lightweight Tournament.  He would go on to finish his Bellator career with an 18-5 record before signing with the UFC last year.

“Iron” is a dangerous combination of explosive and fast.  He hold impressive power and his striking style allows him to move in and out of range quickly and easily.  Chandler likes to throw a teep kick followed by repeated leg kicks when he wants distance.  In the pocket he attacks with heavy boxing combinations.

Chandler’s biggest advantage in this fight, beside his 1.5-inch longer reach, is his wrestling background.  He’s a former NCAA Division I All American and he’s as comfortable on the ground as he is standing up.  Chandler averages 2.37 takedowns per 15 minutes with 41 per cent takedown accuracy.  Don’t be surprised if you see Chandler move this fight to the ground.

UFC 268 Prediction: Gaethje vs. Chandler

This has the makings of a highly entertaining fight.  Gaethje and Chandler both rely on explosive styles and dramatic finishes.  Gaethje has the edge if this fight stays standing up and close, but Chandler has the edge at distance and on the ground.  Chandler is the more complete fighter and wins this fight by third round TKO.