UFC 267 Odds: Jan Blachowicz vs. Glover Teixeira Prediction

The UFC is heading back to Fight Island in Abu Dhabi Saturday, as Jan Blachowicz puts his light heavyweight title on the line against challenger Glover Teixeira in the main event of UFC 267.

Blachowicz is defending the light heavyweight belt for the second time this year.  In March he became the first fighter to defeat Israel Adesanya, taking down the middleweight champion in his bid to become a two-weight title holder.  This is likely the last crack at a belt for Teixeira, whose only other title fight was a loss against Jon Jones over seven years ago.

Blachowicz is a -345 favourite to win on the MMA odds, with Teixeira coming in as a +245 underdog.

Jan Blachowicz UFC 267 Odds

There weren’t many so-called “experts” predicting Blachowicz (28-8 MMA record) would hold the light heavyweight belt, let alone defend it against Adesanya.  After a successful career in Poland, Blachowicz had a tough start in the UFC.  He did just enough to stay on the roster, losing four of his first six fights.

Blachowicz seems to have figured it out over the last few years, though.  The champ comes in riding a five-fight win streak and hasn’t lost since February 2019.  He claimed the vacant light heavyweight title with a second-round stoppage victory over Dominick Reyes in September 2020.  His most impressive win, however, came against the previously undefeated middleweight champion, Adesanya.  Blachowicz controlled most of the fight and won by unanimous decision.

The 38-year-old champ is a diverse fighter.  It’s something you can see just by looking at how he’s won in the past.  Blachowicz has eight wins by knockout, nine by submission and 11 by decision.  He’s an underrated grappler who tends to catch opponents off-guard when he snatches submissions.  Blachowicz is at his most dangerous when he separates from the clinch and attacks with strikes off the break.  It’s worth noting that nearly all of Blachowicz and Teixeira’s striking and grappling statistics are virtually identical, so Blachowicz’s two-inch reach advantage could be a big factor.

Blachowicz’s best strategy is to keep this fight standing up.  He’s more powerful and his reach advantage should help him dictate the pace and range of the fight on his feet.  His opponent will likely try to get him grappling early, which should also leave some opportunities for counterpunches.  Patience is key for Blachowicz on Saturday.

Glover Teixeira UFC 267 Odds

Teixeira (32-7 MMA record) is riding his own five-fight win streak, with his last loss coming by unanimous decision against Corey Anderson in July 2018.  It looked like Teixeira’s title shot window had closed after his loss to Jones in 2014, but the veteran fighter worked his way back to the top.

The Brazilian has picked up stoppages in four of the five fights on his current win streak and he earned Performance of the Night honours against Ion Cutelaba and Anthony Smith.  Teixeira finds himself back in title contention after a brutal fight against Thiago Santos last November.  The submission win (rear-naked choke) cost him some teeth, but the 42-year-old proved he can still hang with the big boys of the division.

That brutal fight against Santos is a perfect example of Teixeira’s style.  He tends to eat damage early until he can get the fight to the ground and look for a submission.  Teixeira actually started as more of a knockout artist, but as he’s aged he’s begun focusing more on grappling power to wear down opponents.  He’s still a crisp boxer and his punching power is there, but he’s become more patient and controlled.

As mentioned above, Teixeira will likely try to move this fight to the ground early.  Teixeira’s wins have mainly come by outlasting his opponents and wearing them down until an opportunity to strike presents itself.  That won’t be the case against Blachowicz, so Teixeira will need to be calculating and smart.  Teixeira needs this fight to end up on the ground.

UFC 267 Prediction: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira

These are two very diverse, veteran fighters and there really isn’t much of a gap in terms of their skillsets.  Teixeira is the better grappler, while Blachowicz is the better striker.  This will be an entertaining fight that goes the distance, but Blachowicz will hold onto the belt and win by unanimous decision.