UFC 266 Odds: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Brian Ortega Prediction
Saturday night’s stacked UFC 266 card is capped off by the second title fight of the night in the main event. Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski will defend his belt for the second time, as No. 2 contender Brian Ortega aims to earn UFC gold.
The champ, Volkanovski, enters as a -180 favourite to win on the MMA odds, with Ortega sitting as a +135 underdog.
Alexander Volkanovski UFC 266 Odds
Volkanovski (22-1 MMA record) has been nearly unbeatable in his career and is a perfect 10-0 since making his UFC debut five years ago. The Australian fighter burst on the UFC scene in 2016 with a second-round TKO win over Yusuke Kasuya. He followed that up with wins against established fighters like Jeremy Kennedy and Darren Elkins.
After earning Fight of the Night honours with a second-round TKO win over Chad Mendes, Volkanovski earned his first big-name fight, defeating former featherrwight champ, Jose Aldo, by unanimous decision at UFC 237. Volkanovski is coming off two straight fights against another former featherweight champion, Max Holloway. He won the featherweight belt from Holloway by unanimous decision in 2019, before defending his title in the rematch by split decision last year.
The interesting trend is Volkanovski’s diminishing ability to finish fights, as his last three wins have come by decision. Volkanovski, however, is still one of the most complete fighters on the UFC roster. He’s a former rugby player, so his cardio is always top-notch and he’s able to adjust on the fly. Volkanovski manages to average almost two more significant strikes landed per minute than Ortega and he absorbs half the significant strikes Ortega does.
How Volkanovski approaches this fight will be interesting. He’s proven himself capable of being both a high-pressure aggressor and a skilled counter-attacker. His opponent is generally more comfortable attacking first, so Volkanovski’s best game plan is to put constant pressure on Ortega from the start and wear him down. Volkanovski is the better striker, with half of his career wins coming by knockout. If Volkanovski can punish Ortega early, he should have a distinct edge in this fight.
Brian Ortega UFC 266 Odds
Ortega (15-1 MMA record, 1 NC) has been around the octagon for a while and made his UFC debut against Mike De La Torre 2014. Ortega originally won the fight by first-round submission, only to have the win overturned and ruled a no contest after he tested positive for a banned substance. Since that debut fight, Ortega has gone 7-1, picking up wins over notable fighters like Clay Guida (KO), Cub Swanson (submission) and Frankie Edgar (KO).
The American finally earned a title shot against Holloway at UFC 231 in 2018. The fight ended in a TKO loss for Ortega after the fourth round because of a doctor’s stoppage, but earned Fight of the Night honours. Ortega dominated Chan Sung-Jung, “The Korean Zombie”, in his last fight, winning the one-sided affair by unanimous decision.
Because of surgical procedures following Ortega’s loss to Holloway, he was off for almost two full years before his last fight. Ortega used that time to completely replace his coaching staff and he looked like a much crisper striker and a better defender. He absorbs an average of two significant strikes more per minute than he lands, so using his three-inch leg reach advantage to keep Volkanovski at bay will be key.
Ortega has always been more comfortable when acting first, but his best strategy against Volkanoski could be to err on the side of caution. He’s up against a powerful, technical striker, who will take advantage of any mistakes Ortega makes. If Ortega can hold strong for the first two or three rounds, his chances in this fight climb drastically.
UFC 266 Prediction: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
I see this becoming a cat-and-mouse fight. Both fighters are at the peak of their abilities and they’re each highly skilled and highly motivated. Volkanovski has been dominant since his UFC debut, but I see the champ losing his featherweight belt on Saturday. Look for Ortega to win by unanimous decision and finally earn UFC gold.