UFC 263 Odds: Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori
Saturday’s UFC 263 main event in Glendale, Arizona, features a middleweight title fight between division champion Israel Adesanya and No. 3 contender Marvin Vettori. Adesanya is fresh off the first loss of his career in March, after failing in his attempt to gain the light heavyweight championship and simultaneously hold two belts. Vettori, on the other hand, has won five straight fights and hasn’t loss since dropping a split decision result to Adesanya in 2018.
The champ is favoured on the MMA odds, with Adesanya coming in at -285 to win and Vettori entering as a +285 underdog.
Israel Adesanya UFC 263 Odds
Adesanya (20-1 MMA record) may have failed in his bid to claim the light heavyweight championship, but he is still the most dominant middleweight fighter. It’s tough to say how the Nigerian will rebound from the unanimous decision loss to Jan Blachowicz at UFC 259 because he’s simply never lost before. Adesanya was perfect in 20 career fights before testing himself in the heavier weight class, but now that his aura of invincibility is gone, how will he respond? This is a fighter who isn’t even used to going the distance, as 15 of his wins have come by knockout. Adesanya is 9-0 in the middleweight division since his UFC debut in 2018 and all but one of those fights has earned him either a Performance of the Night bonus or a Fight of the Night bonus.
With an extensive kickboxing background, “The Last Stylebender” is a complex striker. He’s worked hard to be a complicated fighter and to keep opponents guessing. Adesanya is a great defensive grappler and can block opponents’ takedown attempts a variety of ways, such as stuffing the head, getting to the fence, digging for underhooks, etc. He also punishes opponents after defending their shots. Adesanya can make reads from a distance, picking his shots carefully. His flexibility helps him quickly slide out of the danger zones and his counter-striking in the pocket can be devastating.
It’s tough to compare these fighters to their last bout against each other three years ago. Both fighters have grown and developed in that time and are much more skilled and diverse today. Adesanya’s ability to fend off takedowns and punish opponents as he exits has become lethal. He likes to use leg and body kicks, so how he dictates the distance and pace of this fight will be important. Adesanya has already proven he is a physically tough fighter, but coming off his first career loss, Saturday is a chance to for him to show he is mentally tough as well.
Marvin Vettori UFC 263 Odds
The loss to Adesanya in 2018 seems to have jumpstarted Vettori’s (17-4-1 MMA record) career. The Italian fighter debuted in the UFC in 2016, starting with a subpar 2-2-1 record. Since the loss to Adesanya, Vettori has only looked stronger after each fight, winning five straight heading into Saturday. He only had two fights in 2020, but both were dominant wins. Vettori picked up a first-round submission win over Karl Roberson in June, before winning by unanimous decision over Jack Hermansson in December. Vettori’s last fight was another unanimous decision win in April, this time over Kevin Holland.
“The Italian Dream” is an aggressive fighter with a ferocious strategy. That style led to inconsistent results early in his career, but he has since honed those skills to become one of the more dominant middleweights. Vettori is a powerful striker and he’s capable of coming at opponents with a flurry of movement and pressure when he wants to get on the front-foot. His grappling is on par with anyone in the division and if he gets control, he can land devastating ground-and-pound attacks that lead to finishing opportunities.
His opponent may have improved in the last three years, but so has Vettori. He’s polished his ferocious style to become a more controlled and dangerous fighter. He has a lot of power in his hands and his strength should help give him the grappling advantage in this fight. Vettori is on his way to becoming a star in the UFC, a win on Saturday would only prove that.
Adesanya vs. Vettori UFC 263 Prediction
These are two fighters with the power, skill and potential to end this fight early. The difference between now and their first fight three years ago, is they’re both more disciplined and tactical. Despite the knockout power they both possess, it’s tough to see either fighter pushing too hard, too quickly. Adesanya will take his time dictating the pace of this fight, but he’ll win by unanimous deicison.