UFC 263 Odds: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno

After these two fighters’ first battle ended as arguably the best fight of 2020, they’re set to go head-to-head again in the co-main event of UFC 263 on Saturday in Glendale, Arizona.  Champion Deiveson Figueiredo and No. 1 contender Brandon Moreno only had three weeks to prepare for their UFC 256 flyweight title bout in December 2020, but that didn’t stop them from putting on the best show of the year.  After battling to a draw the first time around, the flyweight belt is once again on the line for this fight.

Figueiredo is is a -245 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Moreno comes in as a +180 underdog.

Deiveson Figueiredo UFC 263 Odds

Figueiredo (20-1-1 MMA record) was the most successful fighter of 2020 in a lot of people’s minds.  He had two finishes against Joseph Benavidez, capturing the flyweight championship in the second victory, and finished the year with three dominating wins and the majority draw against Moreno.  If not for an illegal-strike point deduction in the third round of the Moreno fight, it would have been a perfect year for the Brazilian.  Outside of a single unanimous decision loss to Jussier Formiga in 2019, Figueiredo has been perfect in his career.  Saturday is a chance to extend his championship reign and he won’t be fighting for anymore draws.

“Deus Da Guerra” is a precision fighter who holds incredible power and is skilled at sniffing out submission and knockouts opportunities.  Standing up, Figueiredo is an efficient striker who carefully picks his shots.  He capitalizes on the slightest openings to land powerful blows that wear opponents down until a submission or knockout opportunity presents itself.  Figueiredo’s ground game is just as calculating and technically sound.  None of his movements are wasted and his physical strength makes his chokes vise-like.

In the first fight, Figueiredo was able to land some early bombs, but he couldn’t wear Moreno down.  With more time to prepare, that shouldn’t be an issue this time.  Both fighters are skilled on the ground, so Figueiredo’s best strategy might be to keep this fight standing up for the first couple of rounds.  Figueiredo is the better striker.  If he can land some early power shots, he’ll wear Moreno down much quicker.  It’s time for Figueiredo to show Moreno why he’s the champ.

Brandon Moreno UFC 263 Odds

Moreno (18-5-2 MMA record) is undefeated in his last six fights, although two of those fights were draws.  Since returning to the UFC in 2019, Moreno is 3-0-2.  He earned unanimous decision wins over Kai Kara-France and Jussier Formiga, before a first-round TKO win over Brandon Royval at UFC 255.  The quick Royval win is actually what earned Moreno the first title shot against Figueiredo on only three weeks notice.  With a full training camp to prepare and previous experience against the champ, Moreno is much better positioned to win this fight than the last time these fighters met.

“The Assassin Baby” is normally known as a submission artist, but he’s also developed his standup to elite status as well.  Moreno is a smooth, fluid striker who likes to throw shots in bunches when he’s attacking and also when he’s countering.  He’ll mix up shots to the body and head and he’s skilled at using his jab to disrupt opponents’ timing.  The ground is where he really thrives, though.  Moreno’s wiry frame helps him find leverage and he’s constantly looking for submission opportunities.  He likes to pressure forward and if he can draw an opponent into a dog fight, he almost always has the advantage.

Moreno’s fitness was superior in the first fight against Figueiredo, but he can’t rely on that this time around.  The champ will be at full strength and Moreno can’t afford to take the early shots he took in the first fight.  His best strategy is to win the grappling battles and get this fight to the ground as quickly as possible.  Moreno already showed he has what it takes to beat Figueiredo back in December, now he just has to go out and actually do it.

Figueiredo vs. Moreno UFC 263 Prediction

Moreno doesn’t need this fight to prove he’s one of the best in the flyweight division, he did that at UFC 256.  Having said that, a six-month turnaround benefits the champ, while the three-week turnaround in the first fight probably benefitted Moreno more.  There will be no point deductions in this fight, Figueiredo will win by unanimous decision.