UFC 257 Odds: Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 2 Prediction

The entire MMA world will be watching on Saturday, when Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier steps into the octagon for a rematch with the legendary Conor “The Notorious” McGregor in the lightweight division at UFC 257 on Fight Island in Abu Dhabi.

Although Khabib Nurmagomedov announced his retirement after UFC 254, last October, he has yet to officially vacate the belt and is still technically the lightweight champion. There are rumblings that a McGregor win on Saturday would be enough incentive to lure Nurmagomedov back for one more fight with the belt on the line. Regardless of if Nurmagomedov fights again or officially vacates the lightweight belt, there is a lot on the line, as the winner of Saturday’s fight will likely get the next title shot.

McGregor originally opened as a -185 favourite, but the line has continued to move. He’s listed as a -305 favourite on the MMA odds board to win, but the line could change even more drastically as it gets closer to fight time.

Dustin Poirier UFC 257 Odds

Dustin Poirier (26-6) gave UFC fans one of the best fights of the year in 2020, edging out Dan Hooker in a unanimous decision, after their brutal five round war, last June. Since being knocked out by McGregor in their first fight at UFC 178 in 2014, Poirier has only lost twice in his last 13 fights, with his last loss actually coming at the hands of lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov (after Nurmagomedov had already submitted McGregor at UFC 229). Poirier knows McGregor’s trash-talk, confrontational, style well, and he has fully admitted he let his emotions get the better of him in his first fight with “The Notorious”. There’s, rightfully, some questions concerning how he will handle McGregor this time around, when the Irishman has only elevated his mental mind games, but Poirier has said he is a completely different fighter. It’s one thing to know you need to keep you emotions in-check, but it’s a completely different thing to do it. Poirier has certainly matured as a fighter, but Saturday will not only be a tough, physical fight, it will be his biggest mental test, yet.

Although Poirier is a skilled striker with virtually the same numbers as McGregor, it’s his grappling and submission work that separates these fighters. Poirier averages 1.75 takedowns per 15 minutes, compared to 0.75 for McGregor, and while the Irishman’s 62 per cent takedown accuracy is better than Poirier’s 41 per cent accuracy, Poirier averages 1.32 submissions per 15 minutes, which is something McGregor has struggled to defend against in his career. Poirier is a strong jiu-jitsu fighter with seven of his 26 wins coming by submission and will likely be looking for any chance to get McGregor to the ground. After six years and more than 2,300 days, Poirier is finally getting a shot at revenge.

Conor McGregor UFC 257 Odds

Conor McGregor (22-4) last faced Dustin Poirier when “The Notorious” landed a first round TKO win at UFC 178, almost seven years ago, and to say it’s been a wild ride for the Irishman since then, is an understatement. After becoming the first UFC fighter to hold belts in two different weight classes at the same time (featherweight and lightweight), McGregor would eventually be stripped of both titles due to inactivity. McGregor’s lack of fighting over the last few years is really what makes him a question mark heading into this fight. We’ve seen him looked overwhelmed in a submission loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2018 and we’ve seen him look like the best fighter on the planet, knocking out Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in less than a minute at UFC 246, just over a year ago. McGregor has only fought five times in the last five years and just twice in the last three years, so coming into this fight the main question really, is what does he have left in the tank?

Part of what makes McGregor such an entertaining fighter to watch is his striking ability. He hasn’t had to win by decision since facing Nate Diaz at UFC 202 in 2016 and an astounding 19 of his 22 career MMA wins have come by KO/TKO. On paper, McGregor and Poirier have very similar numbers in significant strikes landed per minute (5.43 for McGregor, 5.59 for Poirier), significant strike accuracy (both fighters are at 49 per cent), and significant strike defence (55 per cent for McGregor, 56 per cent for Poirier), but McGregor has the edge in what you can’t calculate. He’s a more naturally talented athlete and he possesses greater knockout power in his strikes. The stage has never been bigger and the lights have never been brighter for McGregor. All eyes will be on McGregor on Saturday, which is exactly the way he wants it.

Poirier vs. McGregor UFC 257 Prediction

It’s taken over six years, but fight fans are finally getting “Diamond vs. Notorious II”. These are two completely different fighters than when they faced off the first time. Both have matured and rounded out their skills to become complete fighters. McGregor has predicted a KO in the first minute and while it probably won’t happen that quickly, McGregor likely takes this fight by KO/TKO in the second round.