UFC 249 Odds: Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje Prediction
Major live professional sports action returns on Saturday night with a loaded UFC 249 card from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla. There will be no fans in attendance. Here’s a look at the main event, which is likely to start around 11:45 p.m. ET on pay-per-view, for the interim lightweight title between Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje with UFC odds and a pick.
Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje UFC 249 Odds
In its original form, UFC 249 was to be a matchup between unbeaten lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, the No. 2 ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC, and Ferguson, the No. 1 contender in the division. Yet for the fifth time, a fight between those two was scuttled. This time, it was Khabib’s inability to leave his native Russia due to a coronavirus shutdown. Khabib is expected to fight Saturday’s winner in the fall. Thus, this bout is for the interim title.
The 36-year-old Ferguson (25-3) is on a 12-fight winning streak since an upset loss to Michael Johnson via unanimous decision at UFC on Fox 3 in May 2012. It’s the second time “El Cucuy” will fight for a title in the UFC. He beat Kevin Lee for the interim lightweight belt in October 2017, submitting Lee by third-round triangle choke. Ferguson’s past four wins have especially been impressive considering the competition: Donald Cerrone, Lee, and former champions Anthony Pettis and Rafael dos Anjos.
Ferguson to win by submission is +245 on the UFC odds page with by KO, TKO or disqualification at +260 and decision at +450. Forty-eight percent of his career wins are by KO/TKO with 32 per cent by submission and 20 by decision.
That the original UFC 249 was postponed probably helps Gaethje (21-2) more simply as he was a short-notice replacement for Khabib and this will be the first title fight for “the Highlight.” The 31-year-old is a former WSOF champion, however and is currently at +155 for this bout.
His first UFC fight was in July 2017 in the “Ultimate Fighter 25” finale and he beat Johnson by second-round TKO. Gaethje then lost back-to-back bouts to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier but has followed that up with three straight wins. He was last in the Octagon in September 2019 and beat Cerrone by first-round TKO (punches).
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UFC 249 Predictions: Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje
It would be very unusual for a Gaethje bout to go the distance. Eighteen of his 21 wins are by KO or TKO with one submission victory and just two by decision. Both losses are by KO/TKO. That Gaethje wins by KO, TKO or disqualification is +170 with decision at +900 and submission at +2000.
On the “when will the fight end” prop, Round 1 is the +200 favourite. That it does the distance is +350.
Ferguson and Gaethje are both 5-foot-11, but Ferguson is listed with a 76-inch reach compared to 70 for Gaethje. That reach difference is why we are backing Ferguson by TKO/KO.