UFC 249 Odds: Aleksei Oleinik vs. Fabricio Werdum Prediction
The only heavyweight bout among the prelims for UFC 249 on Saturday night from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla., sees Aleksei Oleinik facing former champion Fabricio Werdum. The prelims start at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. Check out our UFC odds for the full card and latest betting options.
Aleksei Oleinik vs. Fabricio Werdum UFC 249 Odds
Werdum (23-8) is a -320 favourite at Sports Interaction with Oleinik (58-13-1) at +240. The current heavyweight champion is Stipe Miocic; Werdum is not ranked while Oleinik is 12th.
The 42-year-old Werdum, from MMA-mad Brazil, is a heavyweight all-timer and has been fighting in the UFC since 2007. “Vai Cavalo” won the title at UFC 180 in November 2014 with a second-round TKO (knee and punches) against Mark Hunt and defended the belt with a third-round submission (guillotine choke) of Cain Velasquez. However, Miocic took the title from Werdum in May 2016 with a first-round knockout (punch).
The 6-foot-4, 230-pound Werdum is 2-3 since that Miocic loss but hasn’t fought since a May 2018 fourth-round KO loss (punches) to Alexander Volkov due to a drug suspension. Werdum made news in January 2019, though, by rescuing a teenager from possibly drowning at a Southern California beach.
Werdum is a good grappler with 11 of his career victories by submission and six each by KO/TKO and decision. He averages 3.61 strikes per minute at 51 per cent accuracy. That Werdum wins by KO, TKO or disqualification is +135 on the UFC odds board with decision at +300 and submission +400.
It’s almost comical that the 42-year-old Oleinik, who is from Russia, has fought 72 times as an MMA professional. He started way back in 1996 but didn’t get to the UFC until June 2014. He is the only fighter to ever win a UFC fight via Ezekiel choke and has since done so multiple times. Oleinik ended a two-fight losing streak in January with a second-round submission (armbar) of Maurice Greene.
While Werdum isn’t afraid to bring a fight to the canvas, that’s where “the Boa Constrictor” lives with a whopping 46 career wins by submission. He has been beaten twice that way. Oleinik averages 3.01 takedowns per 15 minutes with 46 per cent accuracy, but his takedown defence is only 20 per cent.
Just eight fights involving Oleinik have gone to the judges (he’s 4-4). He will have about a three-inch reach advantage on Werdum. Oleinik winning by submission is +545 with by decision a +1000 long shot.
UFC 249 Predictions: Oleinik vs. Werdum
The over/under rounds for this scheduled three-rounder is 1.5, with the over a -135 favourite. That it does go the distance is priced at +220 with no at -300. That this is the shortest fight of the night is a +160 second-favorite to Gaethje-Ferguson. We’ll take Oleinik in an upset by submission in Round 2.