Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Fight Preview: MVP MMA Odds, Prediction

Rousey vs. Caraono is the headline bout in the first professional MMA event promoted by Jake Paul’s Most Valuable Promotions (MVP). Rousey is -535 and Carano +400 on the MMA odds with an over-under of 1.5 rounds for the scheduled five-rounder.

MVP MMA: Ronda Rousey

Note that the bout is taking place at featherweight with a 145-pound limit and is sanctioned under the Unified Rules of MMA. It will be contested over five 5-minute rounds using 4-ounce gloves, inside a hexagon cage.

The 39-year-old Ronda Rousey is a former Olympic bronze medalist for Team USA in the 2008 Summer Games and was the first female fighter ever signed by the UFC as the last Strikeforce women’s bantamweight champ. She quickly became the UFC’s first bantamweight champion, defending it a record six times, and first woman to appear in the UFC’s pound-for-pound rankings. Now there are separate rankings for men and women.

Rousey retired from MMA in 2016, finishing her career at 12-2 – losing her final two to Holly Holm by second-round KO at UFC 193 in one of the sport’s biggest upsets and to Amanda Nunes via first-round KO at UFC 207. Nine of Rousey’s 12 career wins are by submission mostly due to her vaunted armbar finish, and three by KO/TKO. She stands 5-foot-6 and has a reach of 68 inches.

“Rowdy” was inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame in 2018. She has been in a few major movies and also competed in the WWE from 2018-22. Rousey has claimed she shopped this fight to the UFC at first, but it declined. She also has said this will be a one-off fight and it’s back to retirement: “I always said that Gina is the one person I’d come back to fight for.”

Rousey’s favoured method of victory on Saturday is by submission at -250 and to win in Round 1 via that method is +100.

MVP MMA: Gina Carano

Gina Carano, 44, had a professional MMA record of 7-1 and she predated women in the UFC. In 2007, she was one half of the first women’s MMA fight to be broadcast on live television. “Conviction” also faced Cris Cyborg for the inaugural Strikeforce women’s 145-pound title in 2009 and lost by TKO in Carano’s final MMA fight. Then she got into acting as well.

“I would have continued fighting if I beat Cyborg,” Carano said. “I would have had to defend the title and wouldn’t have had time to act. I can say now that I’m happy with how things went.”

Carano said she nearly came out of retirement a few times, including in 2014 when Rousey was the top female attraction and UFC president Dana White confirmed there were discussions to stage a fight between them, but for whatever reason it never came to pass.

The 5-foot-8 Carano has a reach of 66.5 inches. “Conviction” has three career wins by KO/TKO, three via the judges and one by submission. Her favoured method of victory Saturday is by KO/TKO/DQ at +550. That the bout goes the distance is +750 with no at -1800. That it ends in Round 1 for either fighter is a -130 favourite.

For what it’s worth, Cyborg herself has told the media that she sees an edge for Carano’s Muay Thai style of fighting vs. Rousey’s judo.

“I don’t really see this as Gina versus an evolved MMA fighter,” Cyborg said. “Instead, I see this fight as a throwback to the type of fights we use to see 17 years ago: striker vs. grappler. Style vs. style. I think the Ronda that retired 10 years ago wasn’t really an evolved MMA fighter like the women we see fighting a decade later, and that bodes well for Carano.”

MVP MMA: Rousey vs. Carano Prediction

Over 1.5 rounds at +160. Both will want to put on a show with a quick finish, but it may take a bit for each fighter to figure the other out. Can’t beat the price to go not even two full rounds.