Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov: UFC 318 Odds, Prediction
Kopylov returns to action pegged as the No. 13 UFC middleweight contender after recording a third-round TKO win over Chris Curtis last January at UFC Vegas 101, and has now claimed victory in six of seven octagon appearances since opening his UFC career with consecutive losses. Paulo Costa returns to the octagon after a near 14-month layoff in search of just his second win since 2019. Costa suffered a heartbreaking split decision loss in his five-round clash with Sean Strickland last time out at UFC 302. Overall, Costa has now lost four of five during a run that started with a second-round TKO defeat at the hands of Israel Adesanya in his bid for the UFC middleweight title at UFC 253.
Kopylov gets set to step into the octagon perched as a -235 favourite on the UFC 318 odds. Costa trails as a +190 underdog while the odds of this fight going a full three rlounds are pegged at -185.
Paulo Costa Odds
Paulo Costa sported a perfect 13-0 pro MMA record when he faced off against Israel Adesanya for the UFC middleweight crown at UFC 253. However, the 34-ywar-old Brazilian has never really bounced back from the dirty beating he took in that fight, in which he was outstruck by a wide 55-12 margin on his way to suffering a second-round knockout loss. Indeed, Costa has struggled to keep pace in striking ever since, absorbing an average of over 155 strikes in each of his three recent losses to Strickland, Robert Whitaker, and Marvin Vettori. An uneven fight schedule since 2020 that has featured just five octagon appearances and multiple fight cancellations has done little to help Costa build any momentum. The question UFC betting fans now want answered is whether Costa has learned anything from the roughest patch of his career, and whether he has made any strides in diversifying a fight game based on sheer power that simply isn’t working for him anymore.
Roman Kopylov Odds
While Paulo Costa searches for answers to his lengthening tailspin, Roma Kopylov has emerged as a rising star in the 185-pound division. A brawler in his pre-UFC MMA days, Kopylov has steadily developed a more complete and polished game that now makes him a threat against even the top-ranked middleweights. The 34-year-old has not refined his striking, he has also become much more patient and opportunistic in the octagon, favouring quality over quantity, and has also shown improvement in changing levels and establishing control on the mat. Kopylov also showed an ability to bounce back after getting tapped out in the second round by Anthony Hernandez in his most recent defeat at UFC 298, turning in an impressive split decision win over Cesar Almeida at UFC 302
UFC 318 Prediction: Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov
Saturday’s co-main event features a clash of middleweights headed in opposite directions and there is little reason to expect anything to change. While Paulo Costa seems to have lost his ways, Roma Kopylov has improved by leaps and bounds in both the mental and physical game, and it just remains to be seen how quickly he can finish Costa.
Prediction: Kopylov by KO, TKO, or DQ (+275)