Nikita Krylov vs Ryan Spann: UFC Fight Night 220 Odds, Prediction

The headline event pits Ukrainian-born Krylov against Tennessee-bred Spann in a Light Heavyweight bout. Both fighters sport terrific records and ambition to continue their respective winning streaks.

As of this writing, Nikita Krylov holds the edge, as per the MMA odds, at -170.

Nikita Krylov UFC Fight Night 220 Odds

Hailing from Luhansk and representing Vale Tudo MMA Academy, Krylov has earned his spurs via an impressive 29-9 win-loss tally. The black belt wearer, colloquially known as “The Miner,” enters his first tilt of 2023 after what was a relatively busy 2022 calendar year.

It began nearly a full year ago, in March 2022 at UFC Fight Night 204 when he faced Paul Craig. The evening didn’t go according to plan, as the Ukrainian fell via triangle choke in the second round. That result would not spoil his year. He picked himself up, figuratively speaking, at Fight Night 208 when tussling with Alexander Gustafsson. A knockout in the very first round proved an emphatic win, so much so that the judges awarded him Performance of the Night honours. Finally, in October at UFC 280, a unanimous decision gave him the victory over Volkan Oezdemir in a close, intense affair.

The latter outcome was peculiar insofar as only 7 per cent of his tilts required a decision. He’s much more of a KO/TKO (41 per cent) and submission fighter (52 per cent). At 7:07, his battles last longer than this weekend’s opponents (4:39). Then again, that speaks to remarkable endurance. He possesses the excellent quality of landing far more significant hits per minute (4.45) than he suffers (2.5), with a 55 per cent success ratio. He is a bit shorter than Spann (6-foot-3 to the American’s 6-foot-5), but his stats sheet suggests he can hold his own.

Ryan Spann UFC Fight Night 220 Odds

Memphis-born and training out of Beaumont, Texas for Fortis MMA, Spann has earned himself a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. The man nicknamed “Superman” has a similarly impressive overall record to Krylov’s at 21-7. In fact, his recent career has followed a trajectory that echoes his Fight Night 220’s opposite number.

Like Krylov, Spann too suffered defeat three fights ago. It was at Fight Night 192 where Anthony Smith got the better of him via a rear-naked choke in the first round. The 31-year-old was presented with the opportunity to turn the tide in February 2022 with a tilt against Ion Cutelaba, but the event was rescheduled to UFC ESPN 36 due to an injury Spann nursed. That may have done wonders because when they finally met, Superman performed a guillotine choke in the initial round, awarding him the win and Performance of the Night honours. Finally, and most memorably, was the fight against Dominick Reyes last fall at UFC 281. After being weighed in at six tenths of a pound too heavy (and thus fined), Spann knocked Reyes out in the first round with a blistering shot to the face, then to the back of the head.

Spann may have a slight advantage with his superior reach of 79 inches to Krylov’s 77.5 inches. His leg reach is also ever so slightly better at 45.5 to 44.5. The devil can sometimes be found in the details, and Spann will need to muster and apply all the edges he can get because he doesn’t land nearly as many significant strikes per minute (3.42) and he receives a lot more too (3.42). In fact, looking at those figures, one can literally argue that he gives as much as he gets. He’s not much of a KO/TKO kind of fighter (29 per cent), but his grappling helps him do away with rivals with relative expediency (4:39).

UFC Fight Night 220 Prediction

Nikita Krylov via submission