Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry Fight Preview: MVP MMA Odds, Prediction
Two legendary MMA fighters meet on Saturday night, with Nate Diaz and Mike Perry squaring off in a welterweight bout at the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles.
This will be the first MMA event put on by Most Valuable Promotions, the promotion headed by YouTuber-turned-“boxer” Jake Paul.
Diaz and Perry will serve as the co-main event of a stacked card that is headlined by Ronda Rousey’s return to MMA after 10 years.
Perry is a -200 favourite on the MMA odds, while Diaz is a +165 underdog.
MVP MMA: Nate Diaz
Diaz is most known for a 15-year UFC career he established after winning The Ultimate Fighter 5 in 2007. The 41-year-old from Stockton, California has racked up a 21-13 career MMA record competing in World Extreme Cagefighting, Strikeforce, Pancrase and the UFC.
Diaz is one of the most entertaining and popular fighters in UFC history, racking up the third-most career performance bonuses ever with 16. He once challenged for the lightweight belt in 2012, but he’s never actually held a UFC title and he only had the one title fight.
This will be Diaz’ first professional MMA fight in almost four years as he’s more recently focused on boxing, losing to Jake Paul in 2023 and beating Jorge Masvidal in 2024. His last MMA fight came at UFC 279 in September 2022 when he earned a fourth-round submission victory over Tony Ferguson.
Diaz will be the more experienced MMA fighter in this matchup and I expect him to rely on a superior grappling ability that has earned him 12 career wins by submission. He’ll also hold a five-inch reach advantage which should help him control the distance when standing up.
MVP MMA: Mike Perry
Perry has a middling 14-8 record in his MMA career, but he’s proven to be an absolute brawler with 11 knockout wins compared to just one knockout loss. The 34-year-old from Flint, Michigan has focused on that brawling ability in recent years as he a perfect 6-0 in the Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship where he is the current “King of the Violence” champion.
“Platinum” fought 15 times in the UFC between 2016 and 2021 with mixed results. He finished his tenure in the octagon with a 7-8 record, dropping four of his last fight fights. Perry has never fought a five-rounder, while Diaz has fought in the championship rounds multiple times.
However, Perry isn’t afraid to go the distance as nine of his career fights have gone to decision. In fact, unanimous decision is how his last three fights went as he beat Mickey Gall in June 2020 before losing to Tim Means in November 2020 and Daniel Rodriguez in April 2021.
I also see Perry as the more committed fighter in this bout. Perry clearly went much harder at the open workouts this week than Diaz did and a seven-year age difference should help close the gap between Perry’s inexperience in championship rounds.
MVP MMA Prediction: Diaz vs. Perry
I’ve talked about Perry’s inexperience with championship rounds, but I really don’t think we’ll get that far. I expect Perry to unleash his power early and lean on his recent bare knuckle experience to punish Diaz.
