Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier: UFC 318 Odds, Prediction

It’s a non-title bout staged at lightweight. At the time of this writing, Holloway is -135 with Poirier +110 on the MMA odds for the scheduled five-rounder in their third meeting.

UFC 318: Max Holloway

It’s pretty unusual for a numbered UFC card to not include a title fight and officially there is not one at stake on Saturday. But the unofficial “Baddest MF” title is on the line – otherwise known as BMF. That’s basically the toughest UFC guy via street cred and right now 33-year-old Max Holloway (26-8), from Hawaii, owns that belt. He is the only fighter in UFC history to win an interim, undisputed and BMF title.

Nate Diaz claimed the BMF belt when after a return to the sport after three years away he beat Anthony Pettis at UFC 241. But Diaz never successfully defended it, losing his next BMF bout to Jorge Masvidal. Long story short, that eventually went to Justin Gaethje and Holloway took the BMF crown from him with a non-title victory at lightweight in April 2024.

“Blessed” returned to featherweight to face current champion Ilia Topuria at UFC 308 last October but lost by third-round KO (punches) and said after he planned to return to lightweight (155 pounds for good). The UFC ranks him as the No. 5 lightweight and No. 11 pound-for-pound fighter. Holloway held the record for most consecutive UFC fights without being knocked down at 29 until running into Topuria.

The 5-foot-11 Holloway has a reach of 69 inches and his fights average 16:05. He lands 7.16 significant strikes per minute with 47 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.76 with 59 per cent defence. Holloway has landed 100 or more significant strikes in 16 separate UFC fights, the most in company history. His takedown average is 0.25 per 15 minutes with 53 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 83 per cent.

Holloway has six losses by decision, and one each by KO/TKO and submission compared to 12 wins each by the judges and KO/TKO and two by submission. Holloway’s 11 knockout victories in UFC competition are tied for fourth-most in company history regardless of weight class. His favoured method Saturday is by decision at +150, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +350 and submission at +2000. To win in Round 1, he is +1200. A draw is +5000.

UFC 318: Dustin Poirier

The 36-year-old Poirier (30-9, one no-contest) is ranked as the No. 6 lightweight ahead of what the long-time fan favorite says will be his final bout before retirement. He was born in Lafayette, La., and is of Cajun heritage so it’s not a coincidence the UFC is returning to New Orleans for the first time in a decade.

“The Diamond” has alternated wins and losses over his past six and lost to No. 2 pound-for-pound fighter Islam Makhachev via fifth-round submission (Brabo choke) last time in the Octagon at UFC 302. That was for the lightweight belt.

Poirier first faced Holloway at UFC 143 way back in 2012 when both were rising featherweights and Poirier won by first-round submission (triangle armbar). The rematch was for the interim UFC lightweight title at UFC 236 and Poirier won by unanimous decision. He lost the belt next time out to Khabib Nurmagomedov. Poirier is one of nine fighters in UFC history at 0-3 in undisputed title fights.

The 5-foot-9 Poirier, a southpaw, has a reach of 72 inches and his bouts average 10:17. He lands 5.30 significant strikes per minute with 50 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.33 with 52 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.24 per 14 minutes with 36 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 64 per cent.

Poirier has four losses by submission, three by KO/TKO and two by decision compared to 15 wins by KO/TKO, eight by submission and seven via decision. Poirier’s nine knockout victories in UFC lightweight competition are tied for most in divisional history, and Poirier is the only lightweight in UFC history to land 150 or more significant strikes in three separate fights. Poirier and Holloway combined for 359 significant strikes landed at UFC 236, the single-fight record for a lightweight bout.

The favoured method of victory for Poirier on Saturday is by KO/TKO/DQ at +275, followed by decision at +350 and submission at +1200. To win in Round 1, he’s +1000. That the fight goes the full five rounds is -135 with no at +100.