Marlon Vera vs. Cory Sandhagen: UFC Fight Night Odds, Prediction

Cory Sandhagen is a -165 favourite to win on the MMA odds and Vera is a +125 underdog.

Marlon Vera UFC Fight Night Odds

The 30-year-old Vera, from Ecuador but now based in California, is 20-7-1 in his professional career and ranked as the No. 3 bantamweight behind champion Aljamain Sterling, Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley. Vera’s bout against Cory Sandhagen was originally set to headline a Fight Night card last month but was pushed back to here for unknown reasons.

“Chito” hasn’t fought for a UFC title but might get a chance relatively soon if he wins Saturday – Vera did face O’Malley on August 2020 at UFC 252 and won by first-round TKO (elbows and punches). He lost his next bout to the legendary Jose Aldo but has won four straight since. Vera was most recently in the Octagon last August and beat former champion Dominick Cruz by fourth-round KO via a devastating head kick. It earned Vera the Performance of the Night award.

The 5-foot-8 Vera has a reach of 70 inches and his fights average 12:11. He lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute with 50 per cent accuracy and absorbs 5.01 with 51 per cent defence. His takedown defence is 0.68 per 15 minutes with 42 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 68 per cent.

Vera has eight wins each by KO/TKO and submission (most common submission rear-naked choke) and four by decision. All seven losses are by the judges. His draw was against Fabio Bispo way back in June 2013 in a different organization. Vera has gone the distance on 12 different occasions and carries a 4-7-1 record in those bouts. The seven fighters who have beaten Vera have a combined record of 181-71-3.

For Saturday, Vera’s favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +295, followed by decision at +500 and submission at +525. A draw is +5000.

Cory Sandhagen UFC Fight Night Odds

The 30-year-old Sandhagen, from Colorado, is 15-4 in his career and ranked as the No. 5 bantamweight. He has gotten one title shot in the UFC, losing by unanimous decision to Petr Yan (currently ranked fourth in the division) in October 2021 for the interim belt. All three judges scored the five-round fight 49-46 for Yan. Sandhagen served as a late replacement for current champion Aljamain Sterling, who was forced to withdraw due to a neck injury.

“Sandman” didn’t fight for nearly a year after that, returning to the Octagon in September 2022 and beating Yadong Song by fourth-round TKO (doctor stoppage) due to a gruesome gash on Song’s eye. The 5-foot-11 Sandhagen has a reach of 70 inches and his fights average 11:29. He lands 6.15 significant strikes per minute with 44 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.21 with 56 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.71 per 15 minutes with 20 per cent defence, and his takedown defence is 63 per cent.

Sandhagen has seven wins by KO/TKO, six by decision and three by submission with three losses by decision and one, to Sterling, via submission. For Saturday, Sandhagen’s favoured method of victory is by decision at -110, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +400 and submission at +800.

To win in Round 1, Sandhagen is +900. He has six first-round finishes on his resume, two in the UFC and last in February 2021 via flying knee KO of Frankie Edgar just 28 seconds into their bout. Sandhagen’s four losses have come to fighters with a combined record of 74-19.

The over-under for the bout is 4.5 rounds with the over a -165 favourite. That it goes the distance is -121 with no the same price.

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen Prediction

Vera by decision