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Marcin Tybura vs. Alexandr Romanov: UFC 278 Odds, Prediction

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The final fight of the preliminary card of UFC 278 on Saturday night from Salt Lake City is from the heavyweight division with Alexandr Romanov a -415 favourite to win on the MMA odds against Marcin Tybura (+290).

UFC 278 - Marcin Tybura v Alexandr Romanov

  • Alexandr Romanov -430
  • Marcin Tybura +265

Marcin Tybura UFC 278 Odds

Francis Ngannou is the heavyweight champion, and the 36-year-old Tybura (22-7), from Poland, is ranked No. 11. Tybura has never fought for a UFC title and probably never will but was an M-1 Global heavyweight champion and M-1 Grand Prix heavyweight champ.

“Tybur” had a five-fight winning streak snapped his last time in the Octagon in October 2021, losing by unanimous decision to Alexander Volkov, currently the No. 8 heavyweight. Tybura has been scheduled twice this year to face Jairzinho Rozenstruik, but both fell through.

The 6-foot-3 Tybura’s fights average 12:21. He lands 3.65 significant strikes per minute with 49 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.44 with 54 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.54 per 15 minutes with 32 per cent accuracy. He defends 82.1 per cent of opponent takedown attempts in UFC heavyweight competition, the best rate in divisional history.

Tybura has nine wins by KO/TKO, seven by decision and six by submission. Four of his losses are via KO/TKO and three by decision. The over-under for Saturday’s scheduled three-round bout is 1.5 rounds, with the over a -180 favourite. That it goes the distance is +160 with no -226.

Alexandr Romanov UFC 278 Odds

The 31-year-old Romanov (16-0), a southpaw, is from Moldova and ranked 13th in the division. He was a former stellar wrestler (two-time United World Wrestling grappling champion) who also competed in sumo for a brief time.

King Kong signed with the UFC in October 2019 and was set to debut in April 2020 but that event was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Then he was to face Tybura at UFC 251, but Romanov was removed from the card due to a positive COVID-19 test. He was last in the Octagon in April and beat Chris Sherman by first-round submission (keylock). By all accounts, Romanov entered his last fight looking trimmer and more toned than in previous appearances.

The 6-foot-2 Romanov’s fights average 7:26. He lands 4.23 significant strikes per minute with 52 per cent accuracy and absorbs 1.35 per minute (third-lowest in UFC divisional history) with 43 per cent defence. His takedown average is 6.46 per 15 minutes with 69 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence 20 percent. He has nine wins by submission, six by KO/TKO and one by decision.

Of his 16 wins, 11 ended in Round 1. Romanov’s five-fight UFC winning streak at heavyweight is tied with Tai Tuivasa for the second-longest active streak in the division behind the champion Ngannou (six).

Romanov will be at a three-inch reach disadvantage but we don’t think that matters in this case.

UFC 278 Prediction: Tybura vs. Romanov

Romanov inside distance