Kyle Nelson vs Blake Bilder Prediction: UFC 289 Odds

Edgar Chaput
June 8, 2023

Two up-and-comers will get to show off their skill and valour during UFC 289’s prelims. While these bouts don’t attract as much attention as the main card, this is, after all, where tomorrow’s stars can get their start.

For this featherweight tilt, the MMA odds have the undefeated Blake Bilder as a -265 favourite to Kyle Nelson’s +195.

Blake Bilder -265
Kyle Nelson +200

Kyle Nelson UFC 289

The Hunstville, Ontario native enters the octagon in Vancouver with a commendable 13-5-1 overall record, even though it doesn’t look as slick as his rival’s undefeated streak. Nicknamed “The Monster” he has earned himself a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

His career experienced a significant gap between a defeat at UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Teixeira in September 2020 and his bout against Jai Herbert at UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Aspinal last July. Unfortunately for him, his return to the ring didn’t go well, as he suffered a loss via unanimous decision. He subsequently came face to face with Choi Doo-ho this past February, but it ended in a draw.

Nelson is a rare UFC fighter whose passage to victory is evenly diverse. Get this: 38 per cent of wins are with good old-fashioned KO and TKO, another 31 per cent by use of submission, and the balance of 31 per cent thanks to decisions by the judges. One doesn’t see that very often. He and Bilder require almost as much time to complete their bouts, with Nelson handling them on average in 10:14 and the American in 9:07. The biggest difference is unquestionably in the major hits per minute column. Perhaps because of his eclectic methods of victory, Nelson only lands 2.85. Bilder an incredible 6.58.

Blake Bilder UFC 289

Believe it or not, but the “The Monster” will take on “El Animal” at UFC 289. One wonders sometimes how these fighters earnt their nicknames. In any event, “El Animal”, 32 years of age, has yet to suffer defeat in his young career. In nine matches, he has eight wins and a draw.

Speaking of those victories, the most recent three were all earned in the past 14 months. In April 2022 at CFFC’s Cage Fury, Blake Bilder took down Regivaldo Carvalho by TKO. Later that summer, in August, he earned the spoils in Week 6 of the Dana White Contender Series against Alex Morgan. A submission was the method of victory that day. Most recently was a UFC 284 bout with Shane Young. The performance was deserving of a unanimous decision from the judges.

Bilder’s road to victory is not as evenly split as this weekend’s opponent. 57 per cent come from submissions, 29 judges decisions and 14 via KO and TKO. As we mentioned earlier, 6.58 significant strikes every 60 seconds are impressive. As is so often the case, however, try to hit more and a fighter opens themselves up to eat more fist. He takes 5.05 licks every minute as a result. He doesn’t grapple as much as Nelson, attempting only 0.82 every 15 minutes to the Canadian’s 1.71. His takedown defence is perfect. Literally. It’s 100 per cent.