Kevin Holland vs. Tim Means: UFC Fight Night Odds, Prediction
Victorious in his return to 170 pounds in his last outing, Kevin Holland looks to Saturday night’s UFC Austin matchup at Moody Center in Texas leading the way as a lofty -365 betting favourite on the MMA odds. Tim Means returns to action following a 12-month layoff pegged as a +260 underdog.
Kevin Holland UFC Fight Night Odds
Holland will be looking to post consecutive wins in the octagon for the first time in five outings. “Trailblazer” enjoyed a triumphant return to the UFC welterweight division with a decisive second-round TKO victory over Alex Oliveira in his last outing at UFC 272. With the win, Holland also snapped a three-fight winless slide, including a pair of five-round unanimous decision losses to middleweights Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori.
To say that Holland has kept busy over the past two years is a massive understatement. The 29-year-old American has appeared in the Octagon on nine occasions over the past 25 months. He tallied five straight wins, including first-round knockout victories over Anthony Hernandez, Charlie Ontiveros, and Jacare Souza, while setting the UFC record for most fights in a calendar year. However, fatigue may have played a factor in his subsequent losses to Brunson and Vettori, in which he was largely outclassed.
A key to success for Holland will be his ability to stay off the mat. Holland was taken down a combined 17 times in his recent losses, with Brunson and Vettori piling up a combined 37:66 of control in those contests.
Tim Means UFC Fight Night Odds
Means should be well rested when he returns to action following his longest layoff in over a decade. “The Dirty Bird” has been idle since claiming a three-round unanimous decision win over Nicolas Dalby at UFC Vegas 30 that also extended his current win streak to three fights.
A prolific finisher early in his career, Means has seen six of his past 10 fights get decided by the judges. However, the 38-year-old has shown signs of evolving his game during his current win streak, using all the tools in his arsenal including effective striking and his prowess on the mat, to fuel his current resurgence.
Means’ stats speak for themselves. The Dirty Bird ranks eighth all-time among welterweights with 5.28 significant strikes landed per minute. However, he faces the challenge of overcoming Holland’s six-inch reach advantage. He also has averaged almost one takedown per 15 minutes over his UFC career, and dominated on the mat in two of his past three victories.
UFC Fight Night Prediction: Holland vs. Means
Holland has benefitted from his return to welterweight after struggling in recent middleweight clashes. He brings a significant reach advantage, and his striking prowess is undeniable. However, he is likely to face a street fight against Means, who has proven his ability to both go toe-to-toe with strikers and take things to the mat. At these odds, it is tough to pass up The Dirty Bird as a value bet on Saturday night. Tim Means (+260); OVER 2.5 (-135).