Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis Prediction: UFC Freedom 250 MMA Odds

Payton Matthews
Last Updated: June 12, 2026

The only heavyweight non-title bout on the most unusual UFC card in the organization’s history features a pair of Americans facing off on the South Lawn of the U.S. White House on Saturday as Josh Hokit takes on Derrick Lewis at UFC Freedom 250 from Washington, D.C. Hokit is a -425 favourite on the MMA odds with Lewis at +330 and an over-under of 1.5 rounds for the scheduled three-rounder.

UFC Freedom 250: Josh Hokit

Saturday’s incredibly unique card staged in front of the White House only has a main card that starts at 8 p.m. ET and all the fighters on it were invitation-only. UFC Freedom 250 is part of not just the 250th anniversary of American independence on July 4 but also President Donald Trump’s 80th birthday, which is Sunday. Trump and UFC president Dana White are very tight. Do note that some rain is possible on Saturday night in the area.

Tom Aspinall is the current heavyweight champion, and the 28-year-old Josh Hokit, who fights out of California, is ranked No. 5 in the division with a career MMA mark of 9-0 – including 3-0 since joining the UFC. “The Incredible Hok” is a former college football and wrestling standout at Fresno State who comes off a unanimous decision win over No. 7 ranked Curtis Blaydes in April at UFC 327.

Hokit has now earned Performance of the Night bonuses in each UFC fight and landed 177 significant strikes vs. Blaydes, the second-most in a fight in UFC heavyweight history.

The 6-foot-1 Hokit has a reach of 73 inches and his bouts average 6:45. He lands a whopping 9.25 significant strikes per minute with 62 per cent accuracy and absorbs 6.81 with 44 per cent defence. His takedown average is 3.89 per 15 minutes with 43 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 75 per cent.

Hokit has finished eight of his nine bouts, with the last one vs. Blaydes the lone fight going to the judges. That was only the second Hokit fight to even reach Round 3. Five of his wins are by KO/TKO and three by decision. For Saturday, Hokit’s favoured method is by KO/TKO/DQ at -115. To win by any method in Round 1, he is +110.

UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis

The 41-year-old Derrick Lewis (29-13, one no-contest), from Houston, is near the end of his career and ranked ninth in the UFC heavyweight division – he’s the oldest heavyweight on the organization’s roster. Lewis was not originally on this card, but Donald Trump is such a fan of Lewis’ hard-charging, knockout style that he pushed UFC boss Dana White to add the Texan. So now there are seven total bouts on Saturday’s card when originally there were six.

Lewis has fought nearly every big-name heavyweight in UFC history and had a two-bout winning streak snapped in January with a second-round TKO loss (punches) to current No. 4 Waldo Cortes-Acosta. “The

Black Beast” has the most knockouts/TKO wins in UFC history with 16, the second-most overall wins in UFC heavyweight history with 20, and 24 of his 29 career wins are by knockout, a whopping 83 per cent.

When Lewis made his UFC debut in 2014, his opponent Josh Hokit was only 16. Lewis has a reach of 79 inches, about six more than Hokit, and his bouts average only 8:50. He lands 2.46 significant strikes per minute with 49 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.57 with 39 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.55 with 26 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 52 per cent.

Lewis’ favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +400 and that either wins by that method is the leader at -250. That it goes the distance is +450 with no at -750. Both will want this largely standing up.