Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria: UFC Fight Night Odds, Prediction
Ilia Topuria is a heavy -395 favourite to win on the UFC odds, while Josh Emmett lags as a +270 underdog.
Josh Emmett UFC Fight Night Odds
Emmett is the No. 5 ranked contender in the UFC’s featherweight division. He is 18-3 in a professional MMA career that dates back to 2011. Emmett began his career 9-0 before his UFC debut in 2016. Since entering the Octagon, he is 9-3 with just one loss in has last six fights.
Emmett strung together a five-fight winning streak between 2019 and 2022 that earned him a shot at the interim featherweight championship earlier this year. The 38-year-old faced Yair Rodriguez at UFC 284 in February, ultimately losing by a triangle choke submission in the second round. It was the first submission loss of Emmett’s career.
“The Fighting Falmer” has 10 career victories by decision, six by knockout and two by submission. Notables wins for Emmett have come against UFC veterans like Calvin Kattar, Dan Ige and Shane Burgos. He earned Fight of the Night performance bonuses against Kattar and Burgos.
Emmett has a slight one-inch reach advantage over Topuria. He averages 4.17 significant strikes landed per minute with 37 per cent accuracy. He is also averaging 1.07 takedowns per 15 minutes with 37 per cent accuracy and 58 per cent takedown defence.
Emmett’s experience will be his biggest strength in this fight. He’s nearing the end of his prime, but he’s not there yet. Emmett is still a powerful striker and he has a strong wrestling base. His opponent is a strong grappler, so Emmett’s best bet for this fight is likely to keep things standing up and make it a slug-fest.
Ilia Topuria UFC Fight Night Odds
Ranked No. 9 in the featherweight division, 26-year-old Topuria is a potential future UFC star. He’s fought professionally since 2015, amassing a perfect 13-0 record in that time. Of his 13 professional fights, he has earned 12 finishes, including four of five fights since his UFC debut in 2020.
Topuria also competes in the lightweight division, with his sole 155-pound fight ending in a second-round knockout victory against Jai Herbert. The German-born fighter has only needed to fight past the second round once in his career. He has eight career victories via submission, four via knockout and one via unanimous decision.
“El Matador” has looked better each fight since joining the UFC. He’s coming off back-to-back Performance of the Night bonuses, with his last fight ending in a second-round submission victory (arm-triangle choke) against Bryce Mitchell last December.
Topuria averages 3.32 significant strikes landed per minute with 49 per cent accuracy. His grappling ability is his biggest strength as he averages 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes with 46 per cent accuracy. He also averages an elite 92 per cent takedown defence.
Topuria is a rising star in the UFC and this headlining fight is an acknowledgement of that. He likes to blend in a mix of striking and grappling attacks, but expect him to try to move this fight to the ground where he is most comfortable.
UFC Fight Night Prediction: Who Will Win Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria?
It’s easy to see why this fight is Saturday’s main event. It’s a classic match of well-known veteran versus rising star. Emmett will be the most experienced fighter Topuria has ever faced, but the younger fighter has risen to every challenge he’s faced so far. Topuria wins by submission.