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Jordan Wright vs. Zac Pauga: UFC Vegas 69 Odds, Prediction

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Jordan Wright is +220 on the MMA odds and Zac Pauga is -310. It likely will start around 9:30 ET as the overall card has an earlier start time than usual in Las Vegas.

UFC Fight Night - Jordan Wright v Zac Pauga

  • Zac Pauga -305
  • Jordan Wright +220

Jordan Wright UFC Vegas 69 Odds

Jamahal Hill is the new light heavyweight champion and the 31-year-old, Wright, who fights out of Los Angeles but graduated from the University of New Mexico (originally from Texas), is unranked with a 12-4 record and one no contest in a pro career dating to 2014 that started in the Xplode Fight Series.

Wright made his UFC debut on short notice as a replacement for Jorge Gonzalez against Ike Villanueva in August 2020 and won after cutting Villanueva with a knee, leading to a doctor’s stoppage. However, the “Beverly Hills Ninja” is just 1-4 since and comes off a second-round TKO loss (punches and elbows) vs. Dusko Todorovic in October 2022. This will be Wright’s return to the light heavyweight division for the first time since his promotional debut.

The 6-foot-2 Wright has a reach of 77 inches and his fights average just 2:58. He lands 5.67 significant strikes per minute with 65 per cent accuracy and absorbs 7.54 with 32 per cent defence. His takedown average is 3.60 per 15 minutes with 50 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence 100 percent.

He has yet to win or lose a fight via decision – seven wins by KO/TKO and five by submission with three losses by KO/TKO and one by submission. His favoured method of victory Saturday is by KO/TKO/DQ at +325, followed by submission at +800 and decision at +1100. Eleven of Wright’s 12 career victories have resulted in first-round finishes. That he wins in Round 1 here is +300 with losing in Round 1 at +120.

Zac Pauga UFC Vegas 69 Odds

The 34-year-old Pauga, who fights out of Colorado and is unranked, is a newcomer to professional MMA with just six fights under his belt and a 5-1 record. He was 3-0 in the Legacy Fighting Alliance and 2-0 in Cage Warriors before losing his UFC debut last August to Mohammed Usman by second-round KO (punch). Pauga had been competing at heavyweight.

Four of Pauga’s five wins are by decision and one via KO/TKO. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at -200, followed by decision at +400 and submission at +1400. A draw is +5000.

The 6-foot-2 Pauga has a reach of 76 inches and his fights average 5:36. He lands 5.71 significant strikes per minute with 64 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.14 with 70 per cent defence. His takedown average is zero, and his takedown defence 100 per cent. This fight may not go to the ground once.

“He is the definition of a kill or be killed fighter,” said Pauga of Wright. “He’s never even been to a third round. I think that plays in my favour. I have a style, especially at light heavyweight, where I’m trying to push him against the wall, grind him out, and him trying to get out of there early is just going to play in my hands.”

The over-under is just 1.5 rounds with the under a -175 favourite. That it goes the distance is +394 with no at -777. Very unusual odds.

UFC Fight Night Vegas 69 Prediction: Wright vs. Pauga

Pauga by KO/TKO at -200 but perhaps worth a hedge at +394 to go the distance at such great value.