Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev: UFC 282 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews
December 7, 2022

Ankalaev is a -285 favourite on the MMA odds, with Blachowicz at +205.

Magomed Ankalaev -430
Jan Blachowicz +295

Jan Blachowicz UFC 282 Odds

The UFC light heavyweight title is vacant because champion Jiří Procházka was to fight a rematch against former champion Glover Teixeira, but last month Procházka pulled out due to a shoulder injury that will require surgery and at least six months of rehabilitation. He decided to vacate the title, and Teixeira refused a replacement fight against Magomed Ankalaev. So Jan Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev was promoted from co-main event to main event for the belt.

The 39-year-old Blachowicz, from Poland, is ranked No. 3 in the division and is 29-9 in a professional career dating to 2007. He’s a former KSW light heavyweight champion and won the UFC title at UFC 253 by beating Dominick Reyes by second-round TKO (punches). Blachowicz defended the title with a unanimous decision victory over Israel Adesanya but lost it to Teixeira last October via second-round submission. Blachowicz bounced back with a first-round TKO over Aleksandar Rakic in May as Rakic suffered a knee injury.

Blachowicz is one of two Polish champions in UFC history. Joanna Jedrzejczyk also accomplished the feat. Blachowicz is one of four light heavyweights in UFC history to earn a knockout from a body kick. He accomplished the feat at UFC Fight Night 53 way back in 2014 vs. Ilir Latifi.

The 6-foot-2 Blachowicz has a reach of 78 inches and his fights average 12:20. He lands 3.55 significant strikes per minute with 55 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.77 per minute with 54 per cent defence. He averages 1.08 takedowns per 15 minutes with 53 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 66 per cent. The takedown rate is the third highest rate in divisional history behind Lyoto Machida (65 per cent) and Ion Cutelaba (57.9 per cent).

A total of 11 of Blachowicz’s wins are by decision, nine by KO/TKO and nine by decision. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +450, followed by decision at +500 and submission at +1100.

Magomed Ankalaev UFC 282 Odds

The 30-year-old Ankalaev, from Russia, is No. 4 in the division and 17-1 in his career. He is a former light heavyweight champion of World Fighting Championship. His lone loss came to Paul Craig in May 2018 by a triangle choke submission.

This will be Ankalaev’s first UFC title fight. He comes off a July second-round TKO win (punches) against Anthony Smith. Ankalaev’s nine-fight UFC winning streak at light heavyweight is the longest active streak in the division and that nine-fight run is the second-longest in divisional history behind Jon Jones (13). Ankalaev is the only light heavyweight in UFC history to earn multiple knockout victories stemming from kicks.

The 6-foot-3 Ankalaev has a reach of 75 inches and his fights average 11:10. He lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute with 54 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.14 per minute with 60 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.94 per 15 minutes with 33 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 86 per cent.

Ankalaev has nine wins by KO/TKO and eight by submission. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +125, followed by decision at +150 and submission +550. The over-under is 4.5 rounds with the under a -155 favourite.