Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira: UFC 281 Odds, Prediction

UFC 281’s stacked card from New York City’s Madison Square Garden is highlighted by a main event championship fight as Israel Adesanya will look to defend his middleweight belt for the sixth time when he faces Alex Pereira.

Adesanya is a -210 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Pereira is a +160 underdog.

Israel Adesanya -225
Alex Pereira +170

Israel Adesanya UFC 281 Odds

The 33-year-old Adesanya, from Nigeria, is 23-1 since his professional MMA debut in 2012. Ranked No. 2 in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings, Adesanya is also a former kickboxer and boxer. As a kickboxer he was a title challenger for the Glory Middleweight Championship and actually faced Pereira, although he lost both fights. He went 5-1 in his boxing career and won the Super 8 Boxing Tournament twice.

“The Last Stylebender” is undefeated at middleweight in his MMA career, with his lone professional loss coming against Jan Blachowicz in a light heavyweight title fight last year. He’s held the middleweight belt since a second-round knockout win against Robert Whittaker in 2019 and successfully defended the title against Yoel Romero, Paulo Costa, Marvin Vettori, Whittaker again and Jared Cannonier.

Generally regarded as a knockout machine, Adesanya’s last three wins were actually all unanimous decisions. He has 15 career victories by KO/TKO and eight by decision. Adesanya averages 3.93 significant strikes landed per minute with 49 per cent accuracy. He has a 59 per cent significant strike defence and 78 per cent takedown defence. He’ll hold a slight one-inch reach advantage over Pereira.

Adesanya has received criticism for adopting a more defensive, less exciting, approach in his last few fights. He’s generally used his length to create a distance between opponents and pick up points with potshots of jabs and kicks. In this fight, however, that likely isn’t the best approach. Pereira is mobile and agile, so Adesanya will need to bring the fight to him and pressure hard.

Alex Pereira UFC 281 Odds

The 35-year-old Pereira from Brazil is 6-1 in his MMA career and 33-7 in his kickboxing career. He is a former Glory middleweight and light heavyweight kickboxing champion and he has also competed in promotions like It’s Showtime and SUPERKOMBAT Fighting Championship. He has defeated Adesanya twice in his kickboxing career, once by unanimous decision and once by knockout.

“Poatan” lost his professional MMA debut in 2015, but has reeled off six straight wins since then, including two this year. His UFC debut was last November and ended with a second-round TKO win over Andreas Michaildis that earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. He followed that up with a unanimous decision victory against Bruno Silva in March and a first-round knockout victory over Sean Strickland in July that earned him another Performance of the Night bonus.

Overall, five of Pereira’s six MMA wins are by knockout and one by decision. He was submitted by rear-naked choke in his lone loss. Through three UFC fights, Pereira is averaging 6.29 significant strikes landed per minute with 60 per cent accuracy. He has a 58 per cent significant strike defence and 73 per cent takedown defence.

It’s a pretty simple game plan for Pereira. He needs to set the tone and push the action. Defending leg kicks will be crucial for Pereira as Adesanya has relied heavily on them over his last few fights. If he can do that and break through Adesanya’s defence, he’ll have a great chance to punish the champion with his deceptively powerful fists.