Jeremy Perry
February 28, 2023

Geoff Neal vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov: UFC 285 Odds, Prediction

The pecking order in the UFC welterweight division could change significantly on Saturday after the bout between Geoff Neal and Shavkat Rakhmonov. These two fighters have been ascending the rankings with both looking to push higher. Neal has won two straight fights and nine of 11, while Rakhmonov is a perfect 16-0 in his MMA career. Which fighter is the best bet in this spot?

Rakhmonov is a heavy -560 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Neal +340 underdog.

Geoff Neal UFC 285

Geoff Neal has 19 fights under his belt and holds a record of 15-4-0 up to this point. He has won two straight and is now the No. 7 ranked fighter in the UFC welterweight division, but there are some question marks about him. Before the two consecutive wins, he had a two-fight losing streak. There are questions as to how he does against the top opponents in the division. He hasn’t been knocked out or submitted since 2017, which is a good sign. In fact, Neal has ended 11 out of his 15 fights early, knocking out nine opponents and submitting two more.

The southpaw fighter recently took down Vicente Luque by knockout on Aug. 6, 2022, and hasn’t fought since then. He’s been preparing to take on Rakhmonov for months now and doesn’t want to miss out on an opportunity to shoot up the welterweight rankings. Rakhmonov is viewed as a fast-riser and a win here would be a nice feather in Neal’s cap. However, a loss here will probably push him either to the bottom of the top 10 or out of it entirely.

The concern here is that while both fighters excel standing, Rakhmonov has a sizeable edge on the ground. Neal will have to make sure he avoids the mat.

Shavkat Rakhmonov UFC 285

Shavkat Rakhmonov has been impressive in his MMA career, to say the least. There’s no denying his talent in the Octagon and it certainly shows when you look at his previous fights. Coming into this bout, Rakhmonov has fought 16 times and has won every single one of them. In fact, he’s been able to end each of those fights early, never allowing a single fight of his to go to the judges. Rakhmonov has knocked out eight opponents and submitted the other eight. Neal is going to have to be incredibly careful here due to Rakhmonov’s finishing ability.

Rakhmonov currently sits at No. 10 in the welterweight rankings and a win over Neal could launch him further up the list. Although Neal is not an elite fighter, he’s a solid veteran and an important stepping stone for Rakhmonov. The tea leaves seem to indicate Rakhmonov in line for a win. He has already submitted Neil Magny – the same fighter that handed Neal his last loss.

This should be fairly straightforward for Rakhmonov. If he decides to stand and trade, he has a bigger chance of losing. If it goes to the ground, he’ll be in control. Neal is only 2-1 in fights decided by submission.