Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins: MVP MMA 1 Odds, Prediction

Former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou will fight for the first time in over 18 months when he steps into the cage to face 2018 PFL Heavyweight Tournament winner Philipe Lins on Saturday night in the promotional debut of MVP MMA at Intuit Dome in Los Angeles.

Ngannou returns to action for this five-round matchup riding a seven-fight win streak across all competitions after winning the symbolic PFL Super Fights heavyweight championship with a devastating first-round KO win over Renan Ferreira in his last outing at PFL Super Fights: Battle of the Giants in October 2024, and has finished opponents inside five minutes on five occasions during his 7-0 run.

Lins ends a 26-month hiatus that followed his unanimous decision win over Ion Cuțelaba at UFC 299, which extended his current win streak to four fights,

Ngannou has emerged as a massive favourite on the inaugural odds, perched as -2500 chalk to extend his win streak, while Lins lags as a distant +1050 bet, with the odds of this fight going the distance pegged at a lengthy +650.

Francis Ngannou Odds

Ngannou has been idle for almost 19 months, but long layoffs are nothing new for the 39-year-old Cameroonian, who has fought just three times since May 2020. While inactivity and advancing age may raise concerns among MMA betting fans, it is safe to expect “The Predator” to still be one of the most terrify heavyweight punchers in the sport. Of his 18 career wins as a pro, 12 have come by KO or TKO on punches including nine first-round knockouts.

And as he demonstrated in his epic five-round clash with Cyril Gane in which he defended and unified the UFC heavyweight title with a unanimous decision victory at UFC 270, Ngannou also possesses the ability to wrestle, clinch, and survive a technical fight over five rounds. However, Ngannou must use his vast experience against Lins, remain patient, and not overextend himself against an experienced opponent, who is comfortable fighting standing or on the mat.

Philipe Lins Odds

A long layoff is also a concern for Lins, who has downplayed his lengthy break as nothing more than an opportunity to get healthy, train, and wait for the opportunity after seeing his UFC contract end two years ago. While Ngannou is known for his ability to finish opponents with devastating power, Lins must counter with a disciplined approach that keeps him out of range of Ngannou and seizing his opportunities to change levels.

The 40-year-old Brazilian has proven his durability by going the distance in four of his past six fights, with his lone loss by decision coming at the hands of Andrei Arlovski six years ago. The question is whether that will be enough for him to survive getting tossed into the lion’s den against one of the most ferocious fighters in MMA history.

MVP MMA 1 Prediction: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins

With both these fighters coming off long layoffs, expect a slow start to this contest, as they feel each other out. Unlike in his youth, Ngannou is likely to demonstrate patience as about to chasing Lins around the cage. And while that may provide Lins with early opportunities to strike, it will be only a matter of time before he gets backed into the fence, where he will be unable to escape The Predator.

Prediction: Ngannou by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2