Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento: UFC St. Louis Odds, Prediction

Rodrigo Nascimento will be vying for a fourth straight victory when he takes on fellow heavyweight Derrick Lewis on Saturday night in the main event at UFC on ESPN 56. Nacimento has received the nod from the judges in each of his three recent victories, which have lifted him to No. 15 on the UFC heavyweight rankings. Fan favourite Derrick Lewis is coming off a five-round unanimous decision loss to Jailton Almeida in his most recent outing at UFC Sao Paulo and has now fallen to defeat in five of his past seven octagon appearances, with two of those losses coming inside five minutes.

Lewis looks to Saturday’s main event matchup at Enterprise Center as a -163 favourite on the UFC St. Louis odds. Nascimento trails as a +135 underdog, while the odds of this contest going a full five rounds are pegged at a lengthy +650.

Derrick Lewis MMA Odds

The “Black Beast” has fallen upon hard times since suffering a third-round TKO loss to Cyril Gane in a failed bid for the interim UFC heavyweight title at UFC 285. Starting with that fight, Lewis has lost five of seven, with the lone contest to go more than three rounds over that stretch being his loss to Almeida last November. While Lewis has challenge for the UFC heavyweight title on two occasions and has been a fixture on the UFC rankings for a decade, he has never gone the distance in a five-round contest and has seen just four of his 40 career fights get settled by the judges.

Lewis was less than excited about being added to this weekend’s main event, having previously stated that he would prefer to stick to three-round fights at this stage of his career. Overall, Lewis has seen 13 of his 40 career fights last less than five rounds including four of his past six outings, not to mention his UFC record 14 career KOs. And with the Black Beast both finishing and getting finished in the first round with regularity over the course of his lengthy career, the +500 odds of this fight lasting 60 seconds or less are always worth a value bet.

Rodrigo Nascimento MMA Odds

While Lewis has seldom gone the distance, Nascimento has gone a full three rounds in each of his past three fights. Those clashes mark a sea change for “Yogi Bear”, who has finished opponents 10 times while going 8-1 with one no-contest over his first 10 pro fights. Nascimento built his early success by consistently forcing opponents to tap out, with six of his career wins coming by submission including four opening-round finishes.

But like Lewis, Nascimento has no experience fighting in championship rounds. And his tendency to take a lot of punishment, absorbing 4.76 significant strikes per minute since joining the UFC five years ago is a big liability, which contributed to his lone defeat as a pro, with Chris Daukaus ending his night by KO just 45 seconds into their clash UFC Fight Island 5 almost four years ago.

UFC Picks: Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento

There is little reason for fight fans to expect this fight to come close to lasting a full five rounds. The big question is whether Lewis will tally a TKO win or if Nascimento can change levels and tap out the Black Beast. Given Lewis’ recent checkered track record, there is plenty of value in taking the underdog Nascimento this time around.

Prediction: Nascimento by submission (+350)