Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno: UFC 283 Odds, Prediction

These fighters have squared off on three previous occasions, going 1-1-1 over that stretch, with Figueiredo emerging as champion in their most recent tilt in January of last year. While Firgueiredo was sidelined by a hand injury, Moreno returned to the championship ranks with a three-round TKO win over Kai Kara-France last summer at UFC 277 that earned him the interim UFC flyweight crown.

With the first three fights between these fighters settling very little, Saturday’s matchup at Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil has emerged as a pick ‘em, with both Figueiredo and Moreno sporting -115 odds.

Deiveson Figueiredo UFC 283 Odds

Now fully healed from the grotesque hand injury that plagued him throughout 2022, it remains to be seen what Deiveson Figueiredo’s longest layoff in a decade will have on his bid to successfully defend his UFC flyweight title. Equally adept fighting toe-to-toe or taking the action to the mat, Figueiredo’s trilogy of fights with Moreno has represented the biggest challenge of his professional MMA career. Unbeaten in five straight outings prior to first facing Moreno, “Deus Da Guerra” demonstrated his ability to force opponents to tap out with three first-round submission during that win streak, and has seen eight of his 21 career wins come by submission.

Figueiredo also established himself as a knockout threat early in his career, with eight of his first 15 career wins coming by KO or TKO. Despite sporting all the necessary tools to extend his championship reign, Figueiredo has also hurt himself with careless behaviour. He was denied a shot at the belt after missing weight ahead of his planned championship clash with Joseph Benavidez in February 2020, which he won with a decisive second-round TKO. In addition, he also let victory slip away in his first date with Moreno at UFC 256. The judges deducted a point for a low blow in a clash that ended as a majority draw.

Brandon Moreno UFC 283 Odds

While Figueiredo enjoyed a lengthy layoff in 2022, Brandon Moreno kept busy by setting the stage for his upcoming fourth clash with the champ with a decisive win over Kai Kara-France last summer at UFC Dallas. In addition to claiming the interim title, “The Assassin Baby” extended his stretch of performance bonus wins to four fights by claiming Fight of the Night honours.

Overall, Moreno has managed to climb the flyweight ranks despite producing checkered results during a 6-3-2 run over his past 11 outings. But there is little doubt that his experience facing off three times against Figueiredo has helped him hone his craft in the octagon. A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Moreno has long established himself as a talented grappler. He racked up seven total takedowns in his first three dates with the champ, and racked up over nine total minutes of control time in this contests. Perhaps more important are the lessons that Moreno has learned from twice going a full five rounds against Figueiredo, which have helped the 29-year-old develop into a more complete fighter capable of going a full 25 minutes.

UFC 283 Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno

Brandon Moreno came up short in his last date with Figueiredo despite clearly outstriking the champion over the final four rounds of their contest. To his credit, Figueiredo eliminated Moreno’s edge on the mat with a pair of takedowns and a clear edge in control time, which ultimately proved to be the difference. UFC betting fans should expect another marathon cash this time around, but considering Figueiredo’s recent injury concerns, the greater betting value lies in Moreno reclaiming the title.

Prediction: Brandon Moreno (-115); OVER 4.5 rounds (+125)