Daniel Rodriguez vs Ian Garry: UFC Fight Night Odds, Prediction

Rodriguez is coming off a third-round submission loss to Neil Magny last November at UFC Vegas 64, but clings to the No. 15 spot on the rankings. Garry continued his meteoric rise with a third-round TKO win over Song Kenan at UFC 285, and now sports an unblemished 11-0 pro-MMA record, including victories in each of his first four UFC fights.

Garry has emerged as a heavy -315 favourite to remain unbeaten on the UFC Charlotte odds. Rodriguez lags as a +225 underdog in his bid to avoid consecutive defeats for the first time in his career, while the odds of this fight going the distance are pegged at a short -141.

Daniel Rodriguez Odds

“D-Rod” saw his longest win streak since joining the UFC end at four fights with last November’s loss to Neil Magny. The defeat marked the first time that Rodriguez was finished by an opponent in 20 career fights. Overall, the 36-year-old has gone the distance in five of his nine octagon appearances. However, he has also demonstrated an ability to end things early with four wins by submission and eight knockouts.

A southpaw, Rodriguez sports impressive striking power, and enters Saturday’s action perched as the all-time leader in the UFC welterweight division in both strikes landed per minute (7.72) and striking differential (2.68). However, he was outclassed both on his feet and on the mat against Magny, who outstruck him by a wide 106-71 margin and took him to the mat on five occasions. And while Rodriguez’s four career submission wins suggest he is a level-change threat, he has failed to execute a takedown in seven fights while being brought to the mat 11 times over that stretch.

Ian Garry Odds

Ian Garry has emerged as a rising star in his brief tenure in the UFC. Inspired as a child to become a fighter by fellow Irishman Conor McGregor’s early success, the 25-year-old Dublin native became a black belt in judo at age 18. But while that may lead observers to expect a dominant ground game from Garry, it is his striking that has set him apart.

“The Future” has finished opponents in seven of his 11 career fights, with six of those wins coming by knockout including two of his four UFC wins to date. Garry survived two takedowns and put on an impressive punching display last time out, outstriking Song Kenan by a massive 127-55 margin on his way to a third-round TKO victory. He has landed an average of over 105 significant strikes in his past three fights.

UFC Fight Night Charlotte Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez vs Ian Garry

This contest is shaping up to be an entertaining slugfest between a pair of fighters trying to establish themselves as contenders in the UFC welterweight division. While oddsmakers expect Garry to maintain his dominance, the talented Irishman should expect to face his hardest-hitting opponent yet. The question is whether Rodriguez has learned anything from the beating he took from Neil Magny as he prepares for the most important fight of his career.

Prediction: Ian Garry by points or technical decision (+130)