Cowboy vs. Gaethje: UFC Fight Night 158 Odds and Predictions
The main card is expected to begin at 8 p.m. ET. Here’s a look at it and the Sports Interaction UFC odds.
Donald Cerrone (36-12) vs. Justin Gaethje (20-2)
Division: Lightweight
Prediction: Gaethje by KO/TKO
The lightweight champion is arguably the best MMA fighter on the planet in the unbeaten Khabib Nurmagomedov, who just defended his title last weekend with a third-round submission of Dustin Poirier, who dropped to the No. 2 contender in the division behind Tony Ferguson. Cerrone is No. 4 and Gaethje No. 5. Neither of these guys have fought Khabib.
The 36-year-old Cerrone has fought for the lightweight title once previously, losing to Rafael dos Anjos in December 2015 by first-round TKO (punches). In June, “Cowboy” had a three-fight winning streak snapped with a second-round TKO (doctor stoppage) loss to Ferguson. When Cerrone wins, it rarely goes to the judges as just 25 nine of his victories are by decision (six of his losses). He is a jiu-jitsu black belt who has finished 17 opponents with chokes or joint locks.
While Cerrone’s chances at another title shot seem unlikely, the 30-year-old Gaethje may have a chance. He lost to Poirier in April of last year but has since knocked out both James Vick and Edson Barboza in the first round. A whopping 17 of his victories are by KO or TKO – no one with at least five UFC fights has averaged as many significant strikes per minute as Gaethje’s 8.50 — and both his losses are. Long story short: This fight won’t go the distance.
Glover Teixeira (29-7) vs. Nikita Krylov (26-6)
Division: Light heavyweight
Prediction: Krylov by submission
Teixeira isn’t ranked in the light heavyweight division – pound-for-pound king Jon Jones is the champion – and Krylov is 13th. The Brazilian Teixeira, 39, has won back-to-back fights, both by submission. Krylov, a 27-year-old from the Ukraine, is off an April submission victory over Ovince St. Preux. None of his victories have gone to the judges.
Todd Duffee (9-3) vs. Jeff Hughes (10-2)
Division: Heavyweight
Prediction: Duffee by KO/TKO
Neither American is ranked in the heavyweight division. Duffee, 35, hasn’t fought since July 2015 when he lost to legendary Frank Mir. Since then, Duffee underwent shoulder injury and two knee surgeries. During his recover for the second knee surgery, he contracted MRSA. All of Duffee’s wins are by knockout. Hughes, 31, had a three-fight winning streak snapped in March via split decision vs. Maurice Green.
Michel Pereira (22-9) vs. Tristan Connelly (13-6)
Division: Welterweight
UFC Odds: TBA
Prediction: Pereira by KO/TKO
Connelly is the lone Canadian on the main card, with the 33-year-old from Victoria. He’s taking the fight on very short notice, replacing Sergey Khadozhko, who was removed to due visa issues. Connelly is the Rise FC lightweight champion and moving up in weight class. Pereira, a 25-year-old from Brazil, made his UFC debut in May and beat Danny Roberts by knockout.
Antonio Carlos Junior (11-3) vs. Uriah Hall (15-9)
Division: Middleweight
Prediction: Carlos Jr. by submission
Carlos Jr., a 29-year-old from Brazil, had a five-fight winning streak end in May when he lost by unanimous decision to Ian Heinisch. Interestingly, Carlos Jr. has never won a fight by KO or TKO. He prefers it on the ground with eight submission victories. Hall, 35 and from the USA, has lost four of his past six and usually wins by KO/TKO (79 percent).