Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev: UFC 280 Odds, Prediction
UFC 280 is easily the most stacked card of the year. The main event in Abu Dhabi is a title bout between former champion Charles Oliveira, who was stripped of the belt after missing weight in his last fight, and No. 2 lightweight contender Islam Makhachev.
Makhachev is a -170 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Oliveira is a slim +135 underdog.
Charles Oliveira UFC 280 Odds
Oliveira has recorded 38 wins, eight losses and one ‘no contest’ since his professional MMA debut in 2008. Currently No. 3 in the UFC pound-for-pound rankings, Oliveira is riding an 11-fight win streak that dates back to 2018. During that four-year span, the Brazilian earned eight Performance of the Night bonuses and broke the UFC records for most submission wins (16) and most finishes (19).
“Do Bronx” won the UFC lightweight championship with a second-round KO victory over Michael Chandler at UFC 262 in May 2021. He then successfully defended the title with a third-round submission victory against Dustin Poirier at UFC 269 later that year. Oliveira was controversially stripped of the belt after missing weight by a half-pound before his UFC 274 fight against Justin Gaethje last May. He went on to defeat Gaethje by first-round submission and was immediately declared the No. 1 lightweight contender.
Oliveira has 21 career victories via submission, nine via knockout and three via decision. He holds a 3.5-inch reach advantage over Makhachev and he averages 3.53 significant strikes landed per minute with 53 per cent accuracy. Grappling is where the 30-year-old is most comfortable. Oliveira averages 2.46 takedowns per 15 minutes with 40 per cent accuracy. His takedown defence is 57 per cent, while he averages 2.89 submissions per 15 minutes.
Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground. A natural finisher, the former lightweight champ has only gone to decision once on his current double-digit win streak. Stylistically, however, Oliveira and Makhachev are very similar fighters, so don’t sleep on the potential that this fight goes the distance.
Islam Makhachev UFC 280 Odds
Makhachev has a 22-1 professional MMA record since his debut in 2010. A protege of former lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev has an 11-1 record in the UFC, including his current 10-fight win streak. His lone career loss was an arguably early stoppage defeat against Adriano Martins at UFC 192 in 2015.
The 31-year-old Russian has earned stoppage victories in his last four fights, defeating the likes of Drew Dober, Thiago Moises, Dan Hooker and Bobby Green. Makhachev’s last two fights didn’t make it past the first round. He used a kimura submission to defeat Hooker in October 2021 and he won against Green by TKO (punches) last February.
Makhachev is just as comfortable finishing fights as he is going to decision. He has 10 career victories via submission, eight via decision and four via knockout. Makhachev averages 2.27 significant strikes landed per minute with 57 per cent accuracy. Like Oliveira, however, Makhachev is a grappler. He averages 3.41 takedowns per 15 minutes with 65 per cent accuracy. His takedown defence is 88 per cent, while he averages 1.23 submissions per 15 minutes.
The one concern regarding Makhachev is the level of competition he has faced. Because of injuries, he has faced multiple late replacements and he has only fought one top 10 fighter and two in the top 15. Saturday should determine whether Makhachev is the real deal.
UFC 280 Prediction: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
This is a highly anticipated fight for a reason. These are arguably the top two lightweight fighters in the world and they both have a very similar style, so I expect a very close fight. Based on Oliveira and Makhachev’s fight history, I have to go with who has undoubtedly proven themselves as elite and that’s Oliveira. Oliveira wins by decision.
