Carla Esparza vs. Weili Zhang: UFC 281 Odds, Prediction

The first title fight on a loaded UFC 281 card from Madison Square Garden in New York on Saturday features strawweight champion Carla Esparza against former champ Weili Zhang.

Zhang is a -470 favourite on the MMA odds with Esparza at +320.

Weili Zhang -515
Carla Esparza +340

Carla Esparza UFC 281 Odds

The 35-year-old Esparza, from California, is 19-6 in a pro career that dates to 2010. She is ranked as the No. 4 female pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC and also was a former Invicta FC strawweight champion.

“Cookie Monster” first won the UFC strawweight title in 2014 with a third-round submission of Rose Namajunas in “The Ultimate Fighter 20” finale but then lost it next time out vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Esparza had a rematch with Namajunas in May for the title again and won by split decision. Esparza set a record for longest time between UFC title reigns by any fighter, male or female, at 2,612 days, breaking a record previously held by Frank Mir (1,234 days).

On Saturday, Esparza competes in her 15th UFC strawweight bout, tied with Tecia Torres for the third-most appearances in divisional history behind Angela Hill (20) and Randa Markos (18). Esparza’s 10 victories in UFC strawweight competition are tied with Jedrzejczyk for most in divisional history. Esparza’s six-fight UFC winning streak at strawweight is the longest active streak in the division.

Esparza has 11 career wins by decision, four by KO/TKO and four by submission. She has completed at least one takedown against 13 of her 14 UFC opponents. Esparza’s 44 takedowns landed in UFC strawweight competition are most in divisional history.

The 5-foot-1 Esparza’s fights average 14:31. She lands 2.20 significant strikes per minute with 40 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.59 with 55 per cent defence. Esparza averages 3.25 takedowns per 15 minutes with 35 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence is 47 per cent.

Her favoured method of victory Saturday is by points at +455, followed by submission and KO/TKO/DQ both at +1000.

Weili Zhang UFC 281 Odds

The 33-year-old Weili, from China, is 22-3 in her pro career and ranked No. 2 in the division. She is the former Kunlun Fight (KLF) strawweight champion and won the UFC strawweight title in August 2019 with a first-round TKO (knees and punches) of Jessica Andrade and defended its successfully against Joanna Jedrzejczyk by split decision. Weili, the first-ever Chinese UFC champion, and Jedrzejczyk combined for 351 significant strikes landed, the third most in UFC title-fight history. Max Holloway vs. Brian Ortega hold the record with 400 total at UFC 231.

However, “Magnum” then lost back-to-back title fights to Rose Namajunas, first by first-round KO (head kick) and then by split decision. Zhang comes off June victory over Jedrzejczyk via second-round KO (spinning backfest).

Weili has earned 18 of her 22 career victories by stoppage and her two knockout victories in UFC strawweight competition are tied for second-most in divisional history behind Andrade (three). The 5-foot-4 Weili’s fights average 11:39. She lands 5.78 significant strikes per minute with 47 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.26 with 52 per cent defence. Weili’s takedown average is 2.09 per 15 minutes with 34 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence is 60 per cent.

On method of victory for Saturday, Weili by KO/TKO/DQ is +115, followed by points at +175 and by submission at +900. She and Esparza have the same 63-inch reach.

The over-under for rounds is 4.5 with the under a slight favourite.