Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba: UFC Vegas 94 Odds, Prediction

This will be a crucial fight in the UFC women’s strawweight division between Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba. Strawweight champion Zhang Weili, who last fought in April, doesn’t have her next opponent set, so the winner of Saturday’s fight could be in line for a title shot.

Jandiroba opened as a slim -130 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Lemos is a +110 underdog.

Amanda Lemos Vegas 94 Odds

The 37-year-old Lemos, who is No. 12 in the UFC women’s pound-for-pound rankings, is 14-3 with one draw since her professional MMA debut in 2014. Lemos’ first UFC fight was as a short-replacement in the bantamweight division, which she lost decisively against Leslie Smith. Lemos was then suspended for two years because of a positive drug test.

Overall, Lemos is 8-2 in the Octagon as a strawweight. She earned a title shot against against Weili at UFC 292 last August, but lost via unanimous decision. Lemos’ only fight since was a unanimous decision win against Mackenzie Dern at UFC 298 in February, which also earned a Fight of the Night bonus.

“Amandinha” is an elite striker and she will try to make this a standup fight. She has more career knockout wins (eight) than she does by submission (three) or decision (three) combined. Lemos has the second-most finishes in UFC strawweight history (five) and the second-most knockout wins (three). She also has the most knockdowns landed in division history (six) and she averages the most knockdowns per 15 minutes (0.91).

Lemos was taken down multiple times by Weili, but Jandiroba isn’t as strong as the champion. Avoiding the ground will be crucial for Lemos and it will give her the advantage. Lemos is a much stronger, more accurate striker and she lands volume strikes. If Lemos can pour on the punches against Jandiroba, she could be great value at plus-money.

Virna Jandiroba Vegas 94 Odds

The 36-year-old Jandiroba has fought professionally since 2013, compiling a 20-3 record. No. 5 in the pound-for-pound rankings, Jandiroba is also a former Invicta Fighting Championship strawweight champion. She made the move to the UFC in 2019 as a late injury replacement against Carla Esparaza, losing by unanimous decision.

Jandiroba had mixed results in her first few years in the UFC, going 3-3 in her first six fights. She’s moved herself into title contention, however, thanks to a three-fight win streak, with convincing unanimous decision victories over Angela Hill, Marina Rodriguez and Loopy Godinez.

“Carcara” is a pure grappler and submission specialist. She has 13 career wins by submission, although just one win by knockout, which was a doctor’s stoppage because of a dislocated elbow. Known for her suffocating grappling ability, Jandiroba has shown flashes of improved striking on her current win streak.

Despite her improved striking, the game plan for Jandiroba will clearly be to get the fight on the ground. Jandiroba isn’t afraid of a boring fight, so she’ll likely focus on smothering Lemos with her wrestling and searching for a submission or decision win.

UFC Vegas 94 Prediction: Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba

There’s a lot of value on this line if you take Lemos. Jandiroba has only fought five rounds once in her career and never in the UFC. I also think oddsmakers are giving Jandiroba a little too much credit for her three-fight win streak.

Lemos at +110 to win is my safe pick, or you could go with Lemos wins by KO/TKO (+200) for a little more value.