Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane White House Prediction: UFC Freedom 250 MMA Odds
The co-main event of Sunday night’s epic UFC Freedom 250 event from the South Lawn of the U.S. White House is for the interim heavyweight title as two-division champion Alex Pereira faces former heavyweight king Ciryl Gane. It’s a pick’em with both at -110 on the MMA odds and an over-under of 2.5 rounds for the scheduled five-rounder.
UFC Freedom 250: Alex Pereira
Tom Aspinall is the current UFC heavyweight champion but hasn’t fought since a no-contest against Ciryl Gane last October due to an accidental eye poke. It was a pretty serious one at that as Aspinall has undergone multiple surgeries and a timeframe for his return remains up in the air. Otherwise, he would be fighting Alex Pereira on this card per UFC president Dana White. Presumably, Aspinall will fight Saturday’s winner when healthy.
The 38-year-old Pereira, from Brazil, is 13-3 in his MMA career and the No. 4 pound-for-pound fighter in the organization but unranked in the heavyweight division because this is his debut. Pereira is attempting to become the first three-division champion in UFC history (there have been 11 two-division champs) having been a former light heavyweight and middleweight champion. He was also a former two-weight champion in Glory Kickboxing before transitioning to MMA in 2021
No less than White has said Pereira would become the best in UFC history by doing so:
“If he wins the third world title that night, he jumps over Jon Jones and becomes the greatest of all time.”
“Poatan” won the middleweight championship by knocking off another all-time great in Israel Adesanya in 2022 – his eight MMA fights before becoming UFC champion were the second-fewest in modern history behind Brock Lesnar’s four — and then added the light heavyweight belt for the first time at UFC 291 by beating Jiri Prochazka.
Periera lost that belt in March 2025 in a defeat to Magomed Ankalaev but then won it back in October before deciding to vacate the 205-pound title to move up to heavyweight. Everyone is holding out hope that Pereira and Jones could face off some day.
The 6-foot-4 Pereira has a reach of 79 inches and his bouts average 11:04. He lands 5.16 significant strikes per minute with 62 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.50 with 53 per cent defence. In only UFC bouts, Pereira lands 62.1 per cent of his significant strike attempts, the third-highest rate in company history behind Alistair Overeem (74.3 per cent) and Shara Magomedov (63 per cent). Pereira’s takedown average is 0.11 with 50 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 79 per cent.
The Brazilian has 11 wins by KO/TKO and two by decision, and his favoured method Sunday is by KO/TKO/DQ at +150.
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane
The 36-year-old Ciryl Gane, from Paris, is 13-2 in his career and ranked as the No. 1 heavyweight contender. He was the heavyweight king of TKO Major League MMA and the interim UFC champion for a bit, the only French-born champion in the organization. His last bout against the current champion Tom Aspinall last October ended in that no-contest eye poke — Gane poked Aspinall in both eye sockets with some calling it intentional, and Aspinall has called Gane a “big cheater.”
In a bit of gamesmanship, Gane hired Artem Vakhitov in his camp to help prepare for this fight. Vakhitov is a former two-time Glory Kickboxing light heavyweight champion who beat Alex Pereira in Glory 78 in September 2021 (and suffered a split decision loss to him in a previous bout). That was Pereira’s final loss in kickboxing before transitioning full-time to MMA.
Gane is unbeaten in his past three bouts since losing to all-timer Jon Jones for the vacant UFC heavyweight title in March 2023 at UFC 285. Gane would become the second two-time interim champion in UFC history behind Justin Gaethje, who fights in the co-main event of this card for the lightweight title against Ilia Topuria. This will be Gane’s fifth heavyweight title fight in the UFC overall, and he’s 1-2 with that one NC in the previous four.
Because he’s a natural heavyweight, the 6-foot-4 Gane could be north of 25 pounds heavier when the two fighters reach the Octagon, and his reach of 81 inches is two better than Pereira’s. Gane’s bouts average 13:30, and he lands 5.29 significant strikes per minute with 61 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.33 with 60 per cent defence.
He has the third-highest significant strike accuracy in UFC heavyweight history and best among active fighters. Gane’s significant strike defence is the second-best rate among active fighters in the weight class. Gane’s +82 significant strike differential against Derrick Lewis at UFC 265 remains the largest margin ever in a UFC heavyweight title fight.
“Bon Gamin” has six wins by KO/TKO, four by decision and three by submission. His favoured method on Sunday is via decision at +275. That the bout goes the distance is +165 with no at -220.
UFC Freedom 250: Pereira vs. Gane Prediction
Such an evenly matched fight that we will take the easy way out and that it ends either way via KO/TKO/DQ at -175. Very slight lean to Gane only as he’s a natural heavyweight.