New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: Odds, Prediction
The New York Yankees (15-9) and Boston Red Sox (9-15) will wrap up a three-game series in Boston on Thursday evening, with first pitch set for 6:10 PM ET on FS1. New York is going for the road sweep after taking the first two contests 4-0 and 4-1. Those results have extended the Yankees’ lead atop the American League East to two games over Tampa Bay, while Boston finds itself in last place and six games out of first.
During the 2025 regular season, the story was much different. The Red Sox compiled a 9-4 record in this matchup, including 4-2 at Fenway Park. However, the Yankees had the upper hand when it mattered most – winning an AL wild-card playoff series 2-1.
The MLB odds board has the BoSox set as -118 favourites.
MLB Betting Analysis
In addition to being 2-0 straight up against Boston in 2026, New York is also 2-0 on the run line. The Yankees are on a four-game winning streak in this matchup dating back to the playoffs last fall, including 3-1 on the run line. As for the over/under, the under is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the two biggest rivals in baseball. It is also 6-2 in New York’s last eight overall and 6-2 in Boston’s last eight at home.
New York Yankees
Cam Schlittler is taking the mound for the Yankees, which is bad news for the Red Sox – at least it was last October. In a decisive Game 3 of their wild-card series, Schittler fired 8.0 innings of shutout baseball with 12 strikeouts and zero walks to lead his team to a 4-0 victory. The right-hander, who went 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA last season after being called up in July, is picking up right where he left off. Through five appearances in 2026, Schlittler is 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 36-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 27.2 innings of work.
Although the Bronx Bombers’ offence has been unspectacular, it has been consistent. The Yanks rank No. 4 in the American League in total runs scored (118) and have crossed the plate at least four times in seven consecutive contests and in 10 of the last 11. Aaron Judge is tied for third in Major League Baseball with nine home runs.
Boston Red Sox
Hitting has been the issue for Boston so far this series – and really this whole season. The Red Sox are second-to-last in the AL in total runs scored (90), leading only Kansas City in that department. Having put just one run on the board through two games against the Yankees, the Sox have now scored two runs or fewer in five of their last six outings.
That kind of offensive ineptitude is going to put a lot of pressure on starting pitcher Payton Tolle, who is making his 2026 debut. Tolle made seven appearances and three starts during the 2025 campaign, his first year in the majors. The left-hander compiled a 6.06 ERA and 1.59 WHIP while walking eight batters in 16.1 innings.
Who Will Win Yankees vs. Red Sox?
There really isn’t anything to like about Boston’s chances on Thursday aside from the fact that it is playing at home. Not even Fenway Park, however, has helped the Red Sox in this series or woken up their slumbering offence. Having to face a red-hot Schlittler only adds insult to injury. Let’s go with Yankees 6, Red Sox 2.
