Why You Should Bet the Houston Astros to Win the 2023 World Series
In the NFL or NBA, it’s not too surprising for a preseason championship favourite to win it all because those leagues are so dependent on individual players: Quarterbacks in football and that one transcendent superstar in basketball.
Preseason favourites in Major League Baseball somewhat rarely win the World Series because one player simply doesn’t make that much of a difference in that sport. The last two World Series champions, Houston (2022) and Atlanta (2021), were around +1000 entering those seasons to win it all. Not longshots by any means but not favoured.
The 2023 playoffs start Tuesday with the wild card round. A total of 14 wild card teams have reached the Fall Classic over the years, including the 2022 Philadelphia Phillies, who lost to Houston. Seven wild cards have won it all, last Washington in 2019. The new added wild card series round (since last year) does make it a bit tougher for those clubs to simply win the pennant.
Could Atlanta (+250 title favourite) mash its way to a title with the dynamic duo or Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson? Certainly possible. Acuna Jr. had a historic 40-homer/70-steal season and will win NL MVP. Olson probably is a unanimous MVP in most other seasons as he led the majors in homers and RBIs. If the Braves, who tied the MLB record with 309 home runs, are in any winner-take-all game in these playoffs, it will be in Atlanta thanks to the best record in the majors.
The Braves’ pitching staff is the clear worry. Spencer Strider will get NL Cy Young votes as MLB’s only 20-game winner and is a strikeout wonder but also has an ERA near 3.81 and tends to get blown up once in a while. No. 2 and No. 3 starters Max Fried and Charlie Morton are dealing with some injury issues, although both will be ready. Atlanta might have to win a lot of 6-5 games … and playoff games generally are lower scoring and won with pitching. That’s why we are not picking the Braves.
National League Is Top Heavy
In this writer’s opinion, there is no good “value” team to win the World Series in the National League because the Braves and Dodgers (+425) feel on a completely separate tier from the rest of the NL field and obviously one has to lose if they meet in the NLCS. Fully expect one of those two in the Fall Classic.
The American League field is much wider open. Baltimore (+600) is the top seed but hadn’t been to the playoffs since 2016 so few players on the team have any postseason experience. The Orioles are similar to the Braves in that they can mash but have major pitching concerns, and Baltimore’s are worse than Atlanta’s.
Tampa Bay (+1200) has been destroyed by injuries. Minnesota (+1800) is only in because it won the atrocious AL Central and hosts the Jays in Game 1 on Tuesday. We would love to pick Toronto (+2000), but its offence tends to go into hibernation at times and the bullpen is a major question mark. Texas (+1800)? Very good lineup and could be dangerous if Max Scherzer can return from injury, but that seems like a longshot. Like the Orioles, the Rangers are also playoff newbies.
Houston (+500) is the clear choice as the Astros have been through the postseason grinder over and over again, stole the AL West title and No. 2 seed on the final seed on the final day of the regular season, and have reached at least the ALCS six straight years with four World Series trips and two titles.