Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
Toronto is a -120 favourite on the MLB odds.
Betting Analysis
It’s no secret that Toronto will be a seller ahead of the July 30 Trade Deadline as it sits last in the AL East at 44-52 and 9.5 games back of the final wild-card spot. It’s simply a matter of which players are traded as the Jays don’t have a ton that other teams want besides Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and they apparently are off limits. Reports are that GM Ross Atkins is probably a goner after this year.
Detroit (47-50) is seven games out of the wild-card spot and might be a moderate seller, but ace lefty and AL Cy Young favourite Tarik Skubal will not be moved. He is not scheduled to pitch in this series as of now. AJ Hinch has been the Tigers’ manager since 2020, and the team hasn’t finished with a winning record under him. If that’s the case again come October, he’s surely gone.
Toronto has either won or tied the season series with the Tigers every year since 2019 (didn’t play in 2020 due to COVID) but that’s in major jeopardy as the Blue Jays lost three in four in Detroit from May 23-26. Maybe the Jays’ wildest game of the season was a 14-11 loss at Comerica Park in the finale. They trailed 9-5 after six, led 11-9 entering the bottom of the eighth and lost on a walk-off three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth. Toronto won two of three vs. Detroit at Rogers Centre in 2023 and hasn’t lost a season series there since 2021.
Detroit Tigers
If the Tigers do sell ahead of the deadline, one of their best available assets is right-hander Jack Flaherty, who was signed to a one-year deal last offseason – a prove-it contract as Flaherty had struggled and been injury prone the previous few seasons. He starts tonight. The 28-year-old looks much better this year at 6-5 with a 3.13 ERA and 0.98 WHIP and should get a big free-agent contract next winter if that continues.
You may remember that Flaherty tied an AL record with seven straight strikeouts to open an April 30 game vs. his primary former team in the St. Louis Cardinals. He faced the Jays on May 23 at Comerica Park and allowed three runs and seven hits with nine strikeouts over 6.1 innings of a 9-1 loss. That score is misleading as it was a 1-1 game entering the seventh inning.
Flaherty is 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA in three career starts against Toronto. George Springer is 0-for-11 career off him with five strikeouts. The only Blue Jays batter with decent career splits against Flaherty is Bo Bichette, who is 2-for-5 with a walk. Tigers outfielder Mark Canha could be in some question Friday as he sat out the last game before the break with a wrist issue that required some treatment.
Toronto Blue Jays
Will Bo Bichette be in the lineup on Friday? He missed the final four games before the break with a calf injury but that he never landed on the IL seems to hint there’s a good chance Bichette returns. Fellow infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa remains on IL and there’s no indication he’ll come off tonight as Toronto tries to improve 21-24 home mark.
Right-hander Chris Bassitt, who could be traded, takes the hill. Bassitt (8-7, 3.52 ERA) has struggled a bit in July, lasting just five innings in both starts (1-1) with a 6.30 ERA. He is 5-4 with a 3.83 ERA in 10 home starts and didn’t see the Tigers earlier this season.
Bassitt, who was born not far from Detroit in Toledo, is 4-3 with a 3.52 ERA in nine starts against them. Zack McKinstry is 4-for-13 with two homers and a double career off Bassitt.
DET
TOR