Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Jul 21, 2021

Robbie Ray gets the starts as the Blue Jays will play their last Buffalo "home" game on Wednesday.

Boston
88-67
AT
July 21, 2021, 7:07 PM ET
Sahlen Field
Toronto
87-69
Runline +1.5 -102
Moneyline +180
Over / Under o +10.5

38%

Betting Action

62%

Runline -1.5 -118
Moneyline -215
Over / Under u +10.5

38%

Betting Action

62%

The excitement around the Blue Jays swirls as Toronto will return to the Rogers Centre for the first time since Sept. 29, 2019 on July 30 for an extended 12-game home stretch.  But, before they can head back to the Six, the Jays still have one more “home” game in Buffalo against the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday.  Toronto will look to split the series after the Red Sox hammered them 13-4 on Monday.  Tuesday’s game was rained out.

The Blue Jays are -199 favourites to win on the MLB odds, with a total of 10.5 runs.

Betting Analysis

Boston is 22-17 against the Blue Jays over the last three seasons, including 6-4 against Toronto this year.  The Over/Under is split equally in the 10 games between these teams this season.  Three of the Red Sox’s wins against the Jays this year have come at Fenway, two were in Dunedin and one was in Buffalo.  Overall, Boston has an almost identical record at home (28-19) versus on the road (29-19).

Toronto has been crushing the ball in home games this year compared to road games.  The Jays have hit the Over in 25 of 43 games between Dunedin and Buffalo versus 19 of 48 games on the road.  They’re 4-1 straight up in their last five games, including a three-game series sweep against Texas in which they outscored the Rangers 25-2.

Boston Red Sox

Right-handed pitcher Garrett Richards was expected to start Tuesday, so he should be on the mound Wednesday.  In 18 starts, Richards has put up a 5-5 record with a 4.91 ERA.  His numbers are skewed a little rougher than they should be after a brutal month of June in which he posted a 7.16 ERA.  Richards went five innings and led the sox to an 11-5 win in his last start on July 9 against the Philadelphia Phillies.  He hasn’t pitched great against Toronto this year, compiling a 1-1 record in three starts with 10 Ks.

Boston is stumbling at the wrong time.  Heading into Monday’s game, they had dropped six of their last eight contests.  They’re only a game up on Tampa Bay for the AL East lead.  With the Jays bats performing as well as they are, the Red Sox need to string together some wins.  The Sox are expected to go with Monday’s batting lineup, which isn’t surprising after the 13-run onslaught.  Hitting leadoff, Kike Hernandez had two of Boston’s six homers on the night.  Hernandez was the lone holdover after manager Alex Cora drastically shifted the batting order.

Toronto Blue Jays

Thomas Hatch was expected to get his first start of the season on the mound on Tuesday, but with the rainout, he’ll get skipped in the rotation and Robbie Ray will start on Wednesday.  This will actually be Ray’s third start in Toronto’s last six games after he started the games before and after the All-Star break.  In those two games he threw a combined 13.2 shutout innings, allowed just five hits and three walks and struck out 19 batters.  On the season, Ray is 8-4 with a 2.93 ERA and has thrown a team-best 107.1 innings.  In one start against Boston this year, Ray gave up three runs on four hits.  He walked three batters over six innings in the 18-4 blowout win.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was expected to DH yesterday, but with the added day off, he’ll likely start at first.  Guerrero is second in the American League with a .328 average and 31 homers.  George Springer could be moved from centre field to take Guerrero’s place at DH.  Springer has been on a hot streak lately, picking up six hits and a walk over his last nine plate appearances.  Those hits included a double and a home run, which have helped bump his average to .235 on the season.

Who Will Win Red Sox vs. Blue Jays?

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