Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
The Philadelphia Phillies, one of the best teams in baseball, make their only visit to Rogers Centre this season as they open a three-game set against the Blue Jays on Tuesday. The Phillies are -155 favourites on the MLB odds for the opener with a total of 8.5 runs.
Betting Analysis
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the clear National League favourites, and they should be when at full strength. But the Philadelphia Phillies held the best record in the majors as recently as last week before a mini-slump, and they are more than capable of beating Los Angeles in a potential NLDS or NLCS, especially if the Phils have home-field advantage.
They have reached at least the NLDS each of the past three seasons and barring major injury will return to the postseason either as NL East champion or a Wild-Card team. To make the postseason, Philly is -700 with no at +550. If there is one major concern on the roster it’s the bullpen, and that was before the team’s best reliever, lefty Jose Alvarado, was recently suspended 80 games for violating MLB’s drug policy. By rule, Alvarado will also be ineligible for the postseason this year. The primary closer now is former Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano.
The Phillies are still led by the only Canadian manager in the majors, Sarnia native Rob Thomson. He has been running the ship since June 2022. On July 12 of that year, Thomson managed a game against the Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre, becoming the first Canadian to manage an MLB game in Canada.
Philadelphia won three of four meetings vs. the Jays last year, including both at Rogers Centre. Toronto visits the City of Brotherly Love from June 13-15.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are battling the Mets for the NL East lead and those two, the Cubs and Dodgers are battling for the top record overall in the Senior Circuit. The National League looks much better at the top than the AL does. Philadelphia enters on a four-game skid, all of those defeats at home, but didn’t have two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper for any of them. Harper hasn’t played since being hit by a pitch in the right elbow last Tuesday vs. Atlanta. He would have been put on the IL by now if it was truly serious, so there’s a good shot Harper is back as early as tonight. He’s batting .267 with eight homers and 33 RBIs. This four-game skid followed a 29-game stretch in which the Phillies didn’t lose even two in a row.
The Jays catch a break Tuesday in that perennial NL Cy Young candidate Zack Wheeler (6-2, 2.96 ERA) was originally to pitch but stayed in Philadelphia while he awaits the birth of his child. He won’t pitch in the series at all now. So it’s lefty Cristopher Sanchez (4-1, 3.32 ERA) on Tuesday. He rarely goes more than six innings but has allowed more than three earned just once in 2025. Sanchez is 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA in five road starts this year and 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two career starts against the Blue Jays. Alejandro Kirk is 2-for-2 with a pair of doubles off him. No Toronto batter has homered off Sanchez. The Phillies are 8-1 in their past nine road games.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays enter on a season-high five-game winning streak after an 8-4 home win over the Athletics on Sunday to sweep that four-game set. Toronto scored at least eight runs in each. Addison Barger hit the go-ahead three-run homer in the eighth inning Sunday, his third straight game going yard. Outfielder Daulton Varsho was out and is week-to-week with a hamstring strain. Reliever Erik Swanson made his season debut Sunday off injury and got the win, allowing a run in an inning. Second baseman Andres Gimenez is expected to be activated off the IL ahead of Tuesday’s game. He has been on the shelf since May 9 due to a right quad strain. Gimenez’s return could shift Ernie Clement from second to third and Barger from third to right field.
Right-hander Bowden Francis (2-6, 5.04 ERA) is scheduled on the mound Tuesday. It has been largely a struggle in 2025 for the 29-year-old, but he threw five shutout innings last time out in Texas in a no-decision. It was easily his best start of the year. Francis has really struggled at home, going 2-3 with a 6.43 ERA. He has made two career appearances (one start) against the Phillies and is 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in seven innings. Kyle Schwarber is 2-for-3 with a solo homer off him. Toronto is 5-1 in its past six vs. the National League.
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