San Diego Padres vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
The Padres are listed as -120 favourites for the opener and a total of 8 runs.
Jays vs. Padres Betting Analysis
One almost has to feel sorry for the San Diego Padres. They might be favoured to win every other division in the major leagues but happen to be stuck in the same NL West as the mega-powerful and mega-spending Los Angeles Dodgers. So while the Friars are right there with L.A. for the division lead, it would be a mammoth upset if the Dodgers don’t win it again. Thus, it will be Wild Card or bust for San Diego again.
That’s the route the Padres took to the 2024 playoffs, with them beating Atlanta in the Wild-Card Series before running into the Dodgers in the NLDS and losing in five. San Diego has one of the best trios of hitters in the majors in three-time batting champion Luis Arraez, perennial NL MVP candidate Fernando Tatis Jr. and All-Star third baseman Manny Machado. The team also has a very good bullpen.
The rotation is a bit of a question mark especially with Yu Darvish on the injured list with elbow trouble. But he’s on the way back and if Darvish can avoid a setback, this should be a Wild-Card team again. To make the postseason, the Padres are -130 with No at +110.
These teams met for three games at beautiful Petco Park last season and the Blue Jays won two of three. They last met at Rogers Centre in 2023 and Toronto lost two of three.
San Diego Padres
Every team has at least one series at home per season where the result is puzzling. The Padres had been one of the best team in the majors at home but were swept at Petco Park over the weekend by Seattle and scored just one run each in all three games. San Diego was 0-for-21 with runners in scoring position and had every regular available. One of the best young hitters in the majors is Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill. He had been batting well north of .400 but is down to .367 thanks to a 1-for-19 slump over his past five. Righty Dylan Cease (1-4, 4.60), who was expected to be one of the top free-agent pitchers available this winter, is on the mound Tuesday. Cease has always run a bit hot-and-cold and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs over his past six. The 29-year-old has good at home this year but is 0-1 with a 6.41 ERA in four road starts. Cease has made two career starts vs. Toronto and is 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA. Anthony Santander is 5-for-16 off him with a double and homer. San Diego is 11-10 on the road.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays are 2-4 on their nine-game homestand after losing 3-2 on Sunday to Detroit to fall to 13-12 at home overall. Anthony Santander was Toronto’s DH after not starting the previous two games due to a hip injury. Blue Jays manager John Schneider dropped Santander from third in the order to fifth, but Santander went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. He’s down to .182 on the season with 44 strikeouts in 41 games. George Springer is hitting below .200 over his past 14 games. He was not in Sunday’s starting lineup but went 0-for-1 as a pinch-hitter. Veteran righty Chris Bassitt, himself a pending free agent this winter, is expected on the hill for Toronto. Bassitt (3-2, 3.16 ERA) has made himself some money in that regard so far in 2025. He’s 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA at home. In five career starts vs. the Padres, Bassitt is 1-3 with 4.44 ERA. Manny Machado has seen him the most, going 5-for-20 with a double and homer. Xander Bogaerts is 5-for-9 off him with a solo homer. The under is 8-2 in Toronto’s past 10 vs. the National League.
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